Senior Policy Analyst
Update, July 10th: We've added an interactive map to this post.
The number of uninsured non-elderly people would rise dramatically in every state under the Senate GOP health care bill, new Urban Institute estimates show — more than doubling in 25 states and more than tripling in four states (see map and table). The new figures further illustrate the high stakes for states and their residents from repealing the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
Overall, 24.7 million fewer non-elderly people would have health coverage in 2022 under the Senate bill than under current law, Urban estimates. That’s largely in line with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates issued earlier this week, which expect the number of uninsured to rise by 20 million in 2022 and 22 million in 2026 under the bill.
Some states would fare especially badly. The number of uninsured Ohioans would jump by more than 1.1 million in 2022, a 184 percent increase relative to current law. In Arkansas, the number of uninsured would increase by 367,000 or 200 percent. And in West Virginia, the number of uninsured would increase by 218,000 or 309 percent.
The largest drop by source of health coverage would be in Medicaid: nearly 16 million (22.8 percent) fewer non-elderly people would be enrolled in Medicaid in 2022, Urban projects. That’s not surprising, as the Senate bill cuts federal Medicaid funding by $772 billion over ten years, according to CBO, by effectively ending the ACA’s Medicaid expansion and converting virtually the entire program to a per capita cap. Faced with such enormous cuts, states would have little choice but to roll back eligibility for large parts of their Medicaid programs.
The Urban analysts note that because they estimated the Senate bill’s effect in 2022, they left out the longer-term impact of the federal cuts under the per capita cap, which would grow each year. In particular, the Urban estimates don’t account for the Senate provision lowering the cap’s growth rate below the House’s inadequate level starting in 2025. As Urban concludes, this provision would necessitate even more Medicaid enrollment cuts over time, further raising the number of uninsured under the Senate bill.
|Senate GOP Bill Would Increase the Number of Uninsured by Nearly 25 Million in 2022|
|Increase in Number of Uninsured||% Increase in Number of Uninsured|
|District of Columbia||61,000||208%|