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POLICY INSIGHT
BEYOND THE NUMBERS

Child Tax Credit Expansion Should Prioritize Cutting Child Poverty

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House and Senate negotiators continue to work toward a bipartisan agreement to expand the Child Tax Credit, a proven policy for driving down child poverty and expanding opportunity, as part of a larger tax package.

As negotiations continue, policymakers should prioritize the 19 million children who currently get only a partial Child Tax Credit or none at all because their families earn too little. By focusing a Child Tax Credit expansion on these children who need it and would benefit most, policymakers would maximize the number of children the credit lifts above, or closer to, the poverty line.

TABLE 1
Estimated Children Under 17 Left Out of the Full $2,000 Child Tax Credit, by State, Race, and Ethnicity
StateTotalLatinoWhiteBlackAmerican Indian or Alaska NativeAsianAnother race or multiple races
Total U.S.18,662,0006,595,0006,009,0004,274,000576,000498,000872,000
(Of all children in racial/ethnic group, percent left out)(27%)(37%)(17%)(46%)(39%)(15%)(26%)
Alabama361,00039,000137,000167,0004,0002,00013,000
Alaska37,000N/A10,000N/A17,000N/AN/A
Arizona477,000278,000102,00028,00064,0005,00014,000
Arkansas233,00037,000112,00068,0005,000N/A10,000
California2,310,0001,619,000294,000165,00064,000133,00077,000
Colorado224,000114,00075,00015,00012,0004,0009,000
Connecticut144,00068,00035,00028,0003,0004,0007,000
Delaware48,00011,00014,00019,000N/AN/A2,000
District of Columbia41,0005,000N/A34,000N/AN/AN/A
Florida1,176,000437,000310,000352,00012,00016,00054,000
Georgia735,000155,000181,000350,00012,00012,00032,000
Hawai’i60,00014,0006,000N/AN/A8,00031,000
Idaho96,00027,00062,000N/A5,000N/A2,000
Illinois664,000217,000199,000198,0006,00018,00029,000
Indiana396,00064,000217,00079,0003,0007,00027,000
Iowa136,00024,00079,00020,0003,000N/A8,000
Kansas150,00043,00074,00016,0004,0004,00010,000
Kentucky304,00024,000216,00042,0002,0004,00017,000
Louisiana402,00028,000118,000232,0006,0004,00014,000
Maine49,000N/A41,000N/A3,000N/AN/A
Maryland245,00054,00056,000110,0003,0009,00015,000
Massachusetts243,000101,00081,00032,0004,00013,00014,000
Michigan579,00067,000285,000172,00014,0009,00035,000
Minnesota214,00034,00083,00060,00015,00013,00012,000
Mississippi269,00013,00075,000168,0003,000N/A7,000
Missouri350,00031,000205,00081,0007,0003,00025,000
Montana55,0004,00034,000N/A15,000N/AN/A
Nebraska88,00028,00039,0009,0004,0003,0005,000
Nevada184,00094,00037,00032,0006,0006,00012,000
New Hampshire39,0005,00030,000N/AN/AN/AN/A
New Jersey373,000165,00093,00085,0003,00014,00015,000
New Mexico172,000116,00023,000N/A36,000N/AN/A
New York1,075,000393,000327,000229,00017,00075,00041,000
North Carolina654,000161,000205,000225,00022,00011,00032,000
North Dakota26,000N/A13,000N/A8,000N/AN/A
Ohio698,00064,000370,000189,00010,0008,00060,000
Oklahoma276,00064,000108,00037,00058,0003,00014,000
Oregon186,00059,00098,0008,00010,0005,0009,000
Pennsylvania632,000143,000280,000151,0009,00017,00035,000
Rhode Island45,00021,00014,0006,000N/AN/A2,000
South Carolina340,00042,000108,000167,0004,0002,00018,000
South Dakota45,0003,00018,000N/A23,000N/AN/A
Tennessee461,00062,000231,000137,0005,0003,00023,000
Texas2,120,0001,380,000322,000322,00021,00040,00048,000
Utah152,00051,00081,000N/A6,000N/A9,000
Vermont20,000N/A17,000N/AN/AN/AN/A
Virginia367,00063,000133,000133,0005,00010,00025,000
Washington315,000110,000130,00022,00021,00013,00024,000
West Virginia123,0003,000103,0007,000N/AN/A8,000
Wisconsin250,00048,000115,00057,00011,0007,00013,000
Wyoming23,0006,00014,000N/A3,000N/AN/A

Notes: Children under 17 left out of the full $2,000 Child Tax Credit are eligible for less than the full $2,000 per child because their families lack earnings or have earnings that are too low. Figures are rounded to the nearest 1,000. N/A indicates reliable data are not available due to small sample size. Figures may not sum to totals due to group overlap, lack of reliable data in certain cells, and/or rounding. Percentages in the “Total U.S.” row represent the share of all children under 17 in that racial/ethnic group left out of the full $2,000 Child Tax Credit. Estimates reflect a pre-pandemic economy, using tax year 2023 tax rules and incomes adjusted for inflation to 2023 dollars. Individuals are classified as Latino (any race); white only, not Latino; Black only, not Latino; American Indian or Alaska Native alone or in combination with other races, regardless of Latino ethnicity (AIAN); Asian only, not Latino; or another race or multiple races, not Latino. Latino includes all people of Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin regardless of race. AIAN estimates are particularly sensitive to definition; AIAN figures here include those who share another race or ethnicity. (A total of 1.5 million children under 17 are identified as AIAN alone or in combination with other races, regardless of Latino ethnicity. If we apply the non-overlapping categories this report uses for other groups, about 520,000 children under 17 are considered AIAN alone, not Latino; an estimated 237,000 of these children are left out of the full Child Tax Credit.)

Source: Tax Policy Center national estimate for 2022 allocated by state and race or ethnicity based on CBPP analysis of American Community Survey (ACS) data for 2017-2019. Percentages listed in the U.S. total row are shares of the average 2017-2019 ACS population under 17 in each racial/ethnic group.

Topics:
Chuck Marr

Chuck Marr
Vice President for Federal Tax Policy

Policy Basics
Federal Tax

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