September Job Growth Is Only One-Third of Average Job Growth For An Economic Recovery Period
Growth Falls Well Behind What President's Economic Advisers Predicted and Characterized as Average
End Notes
[1] Reuters News Service, “White House advisor says sees big job gains in 2004,” February 10, 2004. The Administration later backed off this CEA projection somewhat. For a detailed analysis of CEA’s 2004 projection, see two reports co-authored by Jared Bernstein, Lee Price, and Isaac Shapiro, “White House Backs Off CEA Prediction of ‘Average’ Job Growth,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and Economic Policy Institute, February 18, 2004; and “Missing the Moving Target,” February 12, 2004, Appendix Table B.
[2] The Bureau of Labor Statistics, “The Employment Situation: September 2004,” October 8, 2004.
[3] BLS made a preliminary estimate that “total nonfarm payroll employment will require an upward revision of approximately 236,000, or two-tenths of one percent, for the March 2004 reference month.” If this preliminary estimate is accurate, then monthly job growth averaged about 20,000 higher than reported over the 12-month period preceding March 2004. This would translate into job growth averaging 157,000 from November 2003 through September 2004, little different from the 148,000 figure used above. (Again, the 148,000 figure reflects the official data now available.)