CBO Estimates That States Will Face Federal SCHIPShortfalls of $13.4 Billion over Next Five Years
End Notes
[1] Congressional Budget Office, “Fact Sheet for CBO’s March 2007 Baseline: State Children’s Health Insurance Program,” February 23, 2007. The shortfall estimate represents CBO’s projection of the amount by which baseline funding levels will fall short of states’ needs, assuming rising health care costs, population growth and continued erosion in employer-based coverage that increases the number of uninsured (and continuation of current program eligibility rules and benefits under states’ SCHIP programs).
[2] CBO estimates that states will face a total shortfall of $47.1 billion over the next 10 years (2008-2017).
[3] These enrollment figures represent the number of children and pregnant women enrolled at any time over the course of a year. According to CBO, the number of individuals enrolled in SCHIP in any given month would be about 40 percent lower than these figures. Under CBO’s baseline estimates, the number of children and pregnant women enrolled in any given month will be about 4.6 million in 2007 if the 2007 shortfall is closed, but fall to about 3.2 million by 2012, for a reduction of 1.4 million.
[4] In addition to children and some pregnant women, the total enrollment figures include some parents of children enrolled in Medicaid and SCHIP and some childless adults covered through waivers. The total number of individuals enrolled at any point during the year will be about 5 million in 2007 if the 2007 shortfall is closed and will decline to about 3.4 million by 2012 under the baseline projections, a reduction of 1.6 million individuals.
[5] See Matt Broaddus and Edwin Park, “Freezing SCHIP Funding in Coming Years Would Reverse Recent Gains in Children’s Health Coverage,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, revised February 22, 2007 (which estimates a total federal funding shortfall of between $12.3 billion and $13.4 billion over the five-year period 2008-2012); and Chris Peterson, “Funding Projections and State Redistribution Issues,” Congressional Research Service, updated January 30, 2007 (which estimates a total federal funding shortfall of $12.1 billion over the next five years).
[6] See Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured, “Enrolling Low-Income Uninsured Children in Medicaid and SCHIP,” January 2007.