CBO Estimates President's SCHIP Proposal Would Lead to Large Enrollment Declines and Funding Shortfalls
End Notes
[1] Congressional Budget Office, “Additional Information on CBO’s Estimate of the Administration’s SCHIP Proposals,” March 9, 2007.
[2] These enrollment figures represent the number of children and pregnant women enrolled at any time over the course of a year. According to CBO, the number of individuals enrolled in SCHIP in any given month would be about 40 percent lower than these figures. The number of children and pregnant women enrolled in any given month will be about 4.6 million in 2007 if the 2007 shortfall is closed, but fall to about 3.7 million by 2012 under the Administration’s proposal, a reduction of over 800,000.
[3] The total enrollment figures also include some parents of children enrolled in Medicaid and SCHIP and some childless adults covered through waivers. The total number of individuals enrolled at any point during the year will be about 5 million in 2007 if the 2007 shortfall is closed and would decline to about 4 million by 2012 under the Administration’s proposal, a reduction of 1 million individuals.
[4] The Administration’s proposal would reduce the federal matching rate from the higher SCHIP rate (on average, 70 percent) to the lower Medicaid matching rate (on average, 57 percent) for children with family incomes above 200 percent of the poverty line (just over $34,000 for a family of three in 2007) and for parents and other adults covered through waivers.
[5] Congressional Budget Office, “Fact Sheet for CBO’s March 2007 Baseline: State Children’s Health Insurance Program,” February 23, 2007.
[6] See Edwin Park and Matt Broaddus, “SCHIP Reauthorization: President’s Budget Would Provide Less than Half the Funds that States Need to Maintain SCHIP Enrollment,” https://www.cbpp.org/2-22-07health.htm Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Revised March 13, 2007 (which estimates that under the Administration’s budget proposal, states would face a federal funding shortfall of $7 billion over the five-year period 2008-2012). The modest difference between the CBPP and CBO shortfall estimates is likely due primarily to differing assumptions about how the $4.8 billion in new SCHIP funds that the Administration proposes over the next five years (i.e., the $4.8 billion in funding it would provide above the baseline funding level) would be allocated among the states.