I recently cited studies from the Urban Institute and RAND Corporation showing that millions more Americans would be uninsured and premiums would rise significantly if the Supreme Court overturns health reform subsidies for people getting coverage through the federal marketplace. A follow-up Urban report tells us more about the 8.2 million people estimated to lose coverage. Of those losing subsidies and becoming uninsured:
81 percent are full- or part-time workers;
62 percent live in the South;
61 percent are white, non-Hispanic; and
60 percent have incomes below twice the poverty line.
Importantly, the report points out that “[e]stimates presented in this analysis reflect effects at a point in time, and therefore understate the number of people who would be affected over the course of a year and over multiple years, as individuals’ employment and income fluctuate.” (Emphasis added.)
One reason why many of the people losing tax credits would end up uninsured is that they don’t have an offer of employer coverage. Urban estimates that almost two-thirds of those now receiving tax credits have a family member who works at a small firm (fewer than 50 workers) and just over a quarter have a family member who is self-employed. About 15 percent of those receiving tax credits are between ages 55 and 64, many of them likely early retirees. These aren’t static categories, of course; people retire, start a business, and change jobs all the time.
Before health reform, many Americans found health coverage expensive or even unavailable — especially older people not yet eligible for Medicare and those with chronic conditions or a history of illness. It’s critical that the Supreme Court not turn back the clock for millions of people who need help getting coverage, now and in the future.