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POLICY INSIGHT
BEYOND THE NUMBERS

CBO: Up to 3.6 Million People Owe Their Jobs to the Recovery Act

A new Congressional Budget Office analysis finds that the 2009 Recovery Act(ARRA) is continuing to save jobs and protect the economy from what would have been a much deeper recession. As we describe in an updated analysis, in the third quarter of 2010 the Recovery Act:

  • increased the number of people employed by between 1.4 million and 3.6 million,
  • increased real GDP by between 1.4 percent and 4.1 percent (see chart below),
    Image
    2010-11-29stim-f1.jpg
  • reduced the unemployment rate by between 0.8 percentage points and 2.0 percentage points (see chart below), and
    Image
    2010-11-29stim-f2.jpg
  • boosted the number of “full-time-equivalent” jobs by between 2.0 million and 5.2 million, both by saving jobs and by boosting the number of hours worked. (Without the Recovery Act, many full-time workers would have been reduced to part-time status and fewer would have worked overtime.)

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Michael Leachman
Senior Vice President for State Fiscal Policy and Co-Leader of the State Fiscal Policy Division