Social Security Administration Proposal To Revise Disability Determinations Is Not Justified
End Notes
[1] See SSA notice of proposed rulemaking (NRPM) on age as a factor in evaluating disability, 70 Federal Register 67101-67109 (November 4, 2005).
[2] SSA expects that the proposal would save $5.834 billion from 2006 through 2015, $1.871 billion of which would come in the first five years (2006-2010). The bulk of the savings would come in Social Security ($3.231 billion over ten years), but large savings also would come in SSI ($834 million), Medicare ($1.034 billion), and Medicaid ($735 million). Id. at 67107.
[3] To be found disabled and eligible to receive Social Security disability benefits, a person must be unable “to engage in any substantial gainful activity by reason of any medically determinable physical or mental impairment which can be expected to result in death or which has lasted or can be expected to last for a continuous period of not less than 12 months.” Section 223(d)(1)(A) of the Social Security Act, 42 U.S.C. §423(d)(1)(A). “An individual shall be determined to be under a disability only if his physical or mental impairment or impairments are of such severity that he is not only unable to do his previous work but cannot, considering his age, education, and work experience, engage in any other kind of substantial gainful work which exists in the national economy, regardless of whether such work exists in the immediate area in which he lives, or whether a specific job vacancy exists for him, or whether he would be hired if he applied for work. For purposes of the preceding sentence (with respect to any individual), ‘work which exists in the national economy’ means work which exists in significant numbers either in the region where such individual lives or in several regions of the country.” Section 223(d)(2)(A) of the Social Security Act, 42 U.S.C. §423(d)(2)(A). The SSI disability provisions basically parallel this language. See Sections 1614(a)(3)(A) and (B) of the Social Security Act, 42 U.S.C. §§1382c(a)(3)(A) and (B).
[4] SSA generally views being age 49 or younger as advantageous in securing employment. (Rules 201.09, 201.10, and 201.18) There is one exception to this rule. If a person is aged 45-49, has a severe medical impairment, cannot perform his or her past work, is restricted to sedentary work, has done only unskilled work, and is unable to communicate in English (or is able to speak and understand English but is not able to read or write English), SSA will find him or her disabled. Under the proposed regulation raising the age categories by two years, this age category would be changed so that it applied to individuals aged 47-51. (Rules 200.00(h)(1), (2) and Rule 201.17) To capture this group, the employment analyses in this paper use data beginning at age 45; however, the impact of SSA’s proposal is likely to fall most heavily on people aged 50 and older.
[5] If SSA increases the age categories by two years, as it proposes, people aged 50-51 who now qualify for disability benefits under Rule 201.09 would instead be denied benefits under Rule 201.18, which would apply to applicants aged 47-51 instead of those aged 45-49.
[6] 70 Fed. Reg. 67102.
[7] U.S. Census Bureau, Uses and Limitations of CPS Data on Work Disability (downloaded March 21, 2006), www.census.gov/hhes/www/disability/cps/cpstableexplanation.pdf.
[8] This paper analyzes statistics for people ages 45 through 61, rather than through the “normal retirement age,” because SSA’s proposed regulations do not change the rules under which people between the age of 62 and the “normal retirement age” will be evaluated. (In the SSI program, a person can be determined to be disabled at any time prior to age 65. After that date, the person receives benefits as an aged individual. In the Social Security Disability Insurance program, a person can be determined to be disabled at any time up until the normal retirement age. That age used to be set at 65. As a result of Social Security legislation enacted in 1983, the normal retirement age is gradually being raised for people who were born in 1938 or later. The normal retirement age will be set at age 67 for people born after 1959.)
[9] From March 1988 to March 2005, the employment rate of all adults rose slightly, from 61.1 percent to 61.8 percent, while the employment rate of persons aged 45-61 without disabilities increased more substantially, from 69.8 percent to 74.3 percent.
[10] The March 2001 employment estimate is available from two different versions of the March 2001 CPS. One estimate shows an employment rate of 21.1 percent. Another estimate, based on an enlarged sample size and revised sample weights introduced by the Census Bureau in that year, shows an employment rate of 19.9 percent. The change between March 1990 and March 2001 is not statistically significant under the first estimate but is statistically significant under the second estimate. All other changes discussed in this section are statistically significant.
[11] A possible further complication in making these comparisons over time is that the employment estimates shown here rely on a CPS employment question that was changed in 1994. On closer inspection, however, we see no indication that the change in the survey question is driving the results shown here. For example, alternative comparisons for the same demographic group examined here, but based on a separate set of survey questions about annual work experience that were not changed, show a peak-to-peak decrease of close to 2 percentage points in the employment rate, similar to the decrease shown above. Likewise, in the monthly employment data used here, the proportion of people working more than 20 hours a week — a group unlikely to have been affected by the particular wording change in the CPS questionnaire — declined about 2 percentage points from March 1990 to March 2001.
[12] Robert Silverstein, George Julnes, and Renee Nolan, “What Policymakers Need and Must Demand from Research Regarding the Employment Rate of Persons with Disabilities,” Behavioral Sciences and the Law 23:399-488 (2005), page 427. The authors cite evidence that people with disabilities who are not in the labor force have become more likely to report their disability now than in the past.
[13] These tabulations exclude individuals receiving disability payments solely on behalf of children or other family members.
[14] Specifically, our CPS-based estimates show that African Americans make up 26 percent of those receiving SSI disability payments and 19 percent of those receiving Social Security disability payments. SSA’s estimates, based on administrative data, show that 19.7 percent of disabled workers receiving SSDI in 2001 were African American. See Social Security Administration, Annual Statistical Report on the Social Security Disability Insurance Program, 2004 (March 2006), www.socialsecurity.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/di_asr/2004, table 63.
[15] CBPP tabulations of the March 2004 Current Population Survey.
[16] Moreover, the employment rate among this group edged downward during the course of the last full economic cycle, from 13 percent in March 1990 (the peak of one business cycle) to 12 percent in March 2001 (the peak of the next business cycle).
[17] Data from the Labor Department’s Occupational Information Network (O*NET) are available at www.onetcenter.org/developers.html. The authors understand that SSA does not view O*NET data as appropriate for determining disability under the Social Security Act. It is not being used here for that purpose, but rather to suggest that, contrary to the statements in the SSA proposal, few if any jobs may exist for individuals of more advanced age, limited education, and limitations resulting from their disabling conditions. In this context, the O*NET data appear to be the most appropriate, authoritative, and up-to-date data available.
[18] O*NET generally ranks job requirements on a scale from 0 (low) to 7 (high). “Minimal” stamina here refers to an ability level of 1 on the O*NET stamina scale. This is the lowest level for which O*NET documentation provides a concrete illustration of what the stamina scale means. “Moderate” reading skills refers to a reading skills level of 4, the second-lowest level for which a concrete illustration of the meaning of the reading scale is provided.
[19] “Minimal” stamina here refers to a level of 1 on the O*NET stamina scale. “Moderate” speaking skills refers to a level of 4, the second-lowest level for which a concrete illustration of the speaking scale is provided.
[20] “Minimal” dexterity here refers to a level of 1. “Moderate” speaking skills refers to a level of 4.
[21]The Labor Department says that shuttle car operators operate a diesel or electric-powered shuttle car in an underground mine to transport materials to the mine cars or conveyor. It should be noted that a degree of flexibility and dexterity is required for this occupation, as well as the ability to tolerate the dust and breathing conditions in a working mine.
[22] “Minimal” trunk strength refers to a level of 2, the lowest level for which O*NET documentation provides a concrete illustration of the meaning of the trunk strength scale. “Moderate” reading skills refers to a level of 4.
[23] See footnote 5.