Deficits and Projections Archive
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Proposed Balanced Budget Amendment is Extreme by International Standards
Revised May 3, 2013
Some proponents of a constitutional balanced budget amendment have argued that other developed countries’ constitutions require balanced budgets, suggesting that such a requirement for the federal government would therefore be appropriate.[2] In reality, however, no European country — not even Germany or Switzerland, which are … -
Chained CPI Proposal Would Cut Social Security Retirement Benefits by About 2 Percent, on Average
April 23, 2013
The President’s new budget proposes to use the chained Consumer Price Index (CPI) for computing cost-of-living adjustments in Social Security and certain other federal benefits, as well as for indexing key parameters of the tax code.[1] The effect of this proposal on Social Security retirement benefits would vary by a … -
Commentary: Think Obama’s Medicare Savings Aren’t Significant? Take a Closer Look.
April 23, 2013
Commentators, pundits, and some policymakers routinely say that while the President’s new budget takes useful steps to reduce the cost of health care programs, the steps are small and rather timid. This judgment seems rooted in the belief that the budget’s changes affecting Medicare beneficiaries, which save a modest $64 … -
Policy Basics: Deficits, Debt, and Interest
Updated April 18, 2013
Three important budget concepts — deficits (or surpluses), debt, and interest — are often misunderstood. Deficits (or Surpluses) For any given year, the federal budget deficit is the amount of money the federal government spends (also known as outlays) minus the amount of money it … -
President Obama’s Deficit-Reduction Package and Other Proposals in the 2014 Budget
April 11, 2013
The President’s 2014 budget is presented in two parts. One part includes the package of deficit- reduction policies that the President included in his last offer to Speaker Boehner during the “fiscal cliff” negotiations in December 2012. This package would reduce the deficit by $1.8 trillion over the next decade … -
Federal Income Taxes on Middle-Income Families Remain Near Historic Lows
Revised April 11, 2013
Federal taxes on middle-income Americans are near historic lows,[1] according to the latest available data. That’s true both for federal income taxes and total federal taxes.[2] Income taxes: A family of four in the exact middle of the income spectrum will pay only 5.3 percent of its 2013 income in federal income taxes next year, according to a new analysis by … -
Statement by Robert Greenstein, President, on President Obama’s FY 2014 Budget
April 10, 2013
President Obama’s budget includes a $1.8 trillion deficit reduction package that reflects his last offer to Speaker Boehner during their budget talks in December. The new budget — like the President’s offer — represents a substantial compromise on the President’s part; compared to the President’s original offer to the … -
Commentary: The Debate Over the Chained CPI
April 9, 2013
The news that President Obama’s new budget will propose adopting the “chained” Consumer Price Index (CPI) for cost-of-living adjustments in Social Security and other retirement programs, and annual inflation adjustments in the tax code, has intensified the debate on this issue. Some commentators portray this proposal as … -
Tax Foundation Figures Do Not Represent Typical Households’ Tax Burdens
April 2, 2013
The Tax Foundation released its annual “Tax Freedom Day” report today that, once again, can leave a strikingly misleading impression of tax burdens — showing an average federal tax rate across the United States that’s likely higher than the tax rate that 80 percent of U.S. households actually pay. To project the day … -
Sequestration by the Numbers
March 22, 2013
The automatic budget cuts known as “sequestration” took effect on March 1. Under the requirements of the 2011 Budget Control Act (BCA) as amended by January’s American Taxpayer Relief Act (ATRA), both defense and non-defense programs were automatically cut, or sequestered, reducing total funding by $85 billion. While the press and public have focused on the programmatic effects of … -
Ryan Roundup 2013: Everything You Need to Know About Chairman Ryan’s Latest Budget
March 22, 2013
Below is a compilation of the CBPP analyses and blog posts on House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s budget, which the House has passed. Overview/General Statement: Robert Greenstein, President, on Chairman Ryan’s Budget Plan March 12, 2013 “When House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan released his previous budget last … -
Ryan Budget Would Undermine Safety Net’s Work Supports
March 21, 2013
House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan justifies the massive cuts he proposes in programs for low- and moderate-income Americans in part by claiming that the current safety net “can create a powerful disincentive to get ahead.”[1] He uses this argument to defend converting both Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition … -
Commentary: Why Balancing the Budget by the End of the Decade Is Not the Right Goal
March 20, 2013
As the House and Senate consider their respective budget resolutions this week, a key point of debate will be whether balancing the budget over the decade is an essential goal. We don’t think it is. We agree with Alice Rivlin, a former director of both the Congressional Budget … -
Ryan Budget Understates Defense Spending by $100 Billion
March 19, 2013
The Ryan budget understates defense spending by $100 billion over the next ten years. It claims $100 billion in defense savings that, in reality, would not materialize because they are flatly inconsistent with Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates of the amount of defense spending that would result from the amount of defense … -
An Apples-to-Apples Comparison of the Deficit-Reduction Figures in the House and Senate Budget Plans
March 19, 2013
The House and Senate are scheduled to consider the budget resolutions that their respective budget committees approved last week. These two budgets — one drafted by House Budget Committee Chair Paul Ryan, the other by Senate Budget Committee Chair Patty Murray — offer sharply contrasting visions.[1] Yet they are not … -
Paul Van de Water Testimony: Financing Medicare and Medicaid
March 19, 2013
Chairman Pitts, Ranking Member Pallone, and members of the subcommittee, I appreciate the invitation to appear before you today on the importance of preserving Medicare and Medicaid. Budgetary entitlements of many kinds are designed to guarantee Americans adequate protection in case of illness, disability, or economic misfortune. Efforts … -
The Ryan Budget’s Tax Cuts: Nearly $6 Trillion in Cost and No Plausible Way to Pay for It
March 17, 2013
The new budget from House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan proposes a series of dramatic tax cuts that would cost nearly $6 trillion in lost federal revenue over the next decade (see Figure 1), and that would provide the lion’s share of their benefits to high-income households and corporations. But, despite its stated … -
Chairman Ryan Gets 66 Percent of His Budget Cuts from Programs for People With Low or Moderate Incomes
March 15, 2013
House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s new budget plan would get at least 66 percent of its $5 trillion in non-defense budget cuts over ten years (relative to a continuation of current policies) from programs that serve people of limited means, standing a core principle of the Simpson-Bowles fiscal commission on its head. Not much … -
Commentary: Murray’s More Evenhanded Approach to Deficit Reduction Contrasts Sharply With Ryan’s
March 14, 2013
The budget that Senate Budget Committee Chair Patty Murray released yesterday stands in sharp contrast to the one that her House counterpart, Paul Ryan, released on Tuesday. As I wrote Tuesday, his budget is extreme.[1] Hers is more balanced and appropriate to meet the nation’s economic and fiscal challenges. The … -
Statement by Robert Greenstein, President, On Chairman Ryan’s Budget Plan
March 12, 2013
When House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan released his previous budget last year, I wrote that for most of the past half century, its extreme nature would have put it outside the bounds of mainstream discussion. It was, I wrote, “Robin Hood in reverse — on … -
Deficit Reduction Should Not Increase Poverty and Hardship
March 11, 2013
Executive Summary With President Obama and lawmakers of both parties vowing to achieve further deficit reduction, the stakes are high for low- and moderate-income Americans. If policymakers heavily target programs that serve vulnerable Americans, they will run the risk of increasing poverty and hardship and reducing opportunity for … -
Jared Bernstein Testimony: Tax Expenditures: How Cutting Spending Through the Tax Code Can Lower the Deficit, Improve Efficiency, and Boost Fairness in the US Tax Code
March 5, 2013
Chairman Murray, ranking member Sessions, I thank you for the opportunity to testify today. These are uniquely challenging times for fiscal policy. Our national economy continues to face a series of self-imposed fiscal deadlines in the forms of cliffs, ceilings, and most recently, sequestration. Various independent analyses find … -
Commentary: Senate Republican Proposal Fails to Address Key Sequestration Problems
February 28, 2013
A measure from Senators James Inhofe (R-OK) and Patrick Toomey (R-PA), which the Senate is expected to consider today, is presented by supporters as giving the President the needed flexibility to address the impending $85 billion in across-the-board spending cuts (“sequestration”), enabling him to cut some programs more and some … -
Economic Downturn and Legacy of Bush Policies Continue to Drive Large Deficits
Updated February 28, 2013
Federal deficits and debt have been sharply higher under President Obama, but the evidence continues to show that the Great Recession, President Bush’s tax cuts, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq explain most of the deficits that have occurred on Obama’s watch — based on the latest Congressional Budget Office projections … -
Tax Expenditure Reform: An Essential Ingredient of Needed Deficit Reduction
February 27, 2013
The revenue raised as part of January’s American Tax Relief Act (ATRA) came primarily as a result of raising tax rates on high-income households. Yet throughout the negotiations around avoiding the fiscal cliff last year, both President Obama and Speaker Boehner called for raising revenue through limiting tax deductions, exclusions, and other tax breaks … -
The Pending Automatic Budget Cuts
February 26, 2013
This report has been updated to reflect new data. In budget circles and beyond, all eyes are focused on the automatic budget cuts, known as “sequestration,” that are slated to take effect on March 1. But, in fact, March will bring two separate sequestrations — the first and well-known one of March 1 and a second and much smaller one … -
Testimony of Robert Greenstein, President, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Before the Senate Committee on Finance
February 26, 2013
Mr. Chairman and distinguished members of the Finance Committee, I appreciate the invitation to testify here today. As we all know, the nation faces fiscal and economic challenges, and we will have to make some tough decisions to put the budget on a more sustainable fiscal course and to do so without hindering a still-too-weak economic … -
Commentary: A Look at the New Simpson-Bowles Plan
February 22, 2013
The new deficit-reduction plan that Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles issued this week calls for $2.4 trillion of additional deficit reduction over the next ten years (through 2023), with roughly $2.1 trillion in policy changes and about $300 billion in resulting interest savings.[1] Of the policy savings, about $700 billion would come … -
Testimony of Chad Stone, Chief Economist, on Unintended Consequences: Is Government Effectively Addressing the Unemployment Crisis?
February 14, 2013
Mr. Chairman and members of the subcommittee, thank you for the opportunity to testify on this important topic. The first half of my testimony focuses on the macroeconomic roots of our current jobs crisis and the second part focuses specifically on unemployment insurance. There is no doubt that the United States continues to suffer a … -
Testimony of Robert Greenstein, President, Before Senate Budget Committee
February 13, 2013
I appreciate the invitation to testify today on the impact of federal budget decisions on families and communities. This is an important matter. As you know, the nation will have to make tough decisions to put the budget on a more sustainable fiscal course. The issue is not only whether policymakers act to secure adequate … -
$1.5 Trillion in Deficit Savings Would Stabilize the Debt Over the Coming Decade
February 11, 2013
Policymakers could stabilize the public debt over the coming decade with $1.5 trillion in additional deficit savings, according to the Center’s updated calculations, which are based on the new budget projections that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released this week. Policymakers could achieve these savings with $1.3 … -
“Boehner Rule” Linking Debt-Ceiling Increase to Spending Cuts Is Dangerous Policy
January 25, 2013
House Speaker John Boehner has argued that “any increase in the debt limit has to be accompanied by spending reductions that equal or exceed it.”[1] The Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011, which ended the previous debt-limit showdown, paired a $2.1-trillion increase in the debt ceiling with spending cuts of similar size.[2] … -
Separating the Debt Limit From the Deficit Problem
January 23, 2013
Some lawmakers speak of refusing to raise the debt limit and thereby risking default on obligations of the U.S. Treasury unless Congress and the President agree to harsh spending cuts, or of raising the debt limit for only a few months at a time and thereby fostering ongoing uncertainty. To be sure, the nation’s long-term fiscal … -
Achieving Further Deficit Reduction Solely Through Spending Cuts Entails Cutting Entitlements That Benefit the Poor and Middle Class While Shielding the Biggest Entitlements for the Wealthy
January 9, 2013
Since President Obama and Congress enacted the “fiscal cliff” budget deal, congressional Republican leaders have vowed not to raise a dollar more in taxes for deficit reduction. All further deficit reduction, they say, must come from budget cuts, primarily from entitlement programs. That, however, would spare the broad … -
To Stabilize the Debt, Policymakers Should Seek Another $1.4 Trillion in Deficit Savings
January 9, 2013
With the “fiscal cliff” deal in place, President Obama and Congress are now expected to seek more deficit reduction to replace the automatic spending cuts (“sequestration”) that are scheduled to take effect on March 1. Policymakers can stabilize the public debt over the coming decade, ensuring that it … -
Commentary: Next Round on the Deficit
January 7, 2013
In recent days, policymakers, pundits, and the media have debated whether the “fiscal cliff” budget deal was a victory or defeat for the President or congressional Republicans, progressives or conservatives, rich or poor, the economy or the deficit — you name it. Most of the commentary is unpersuasive, however, for … -
Budget Deal Makes Permanent 82 Percent of President Bush’s Tax Cuts
January 3, 2013
The American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (ATRA)[1] , which President Obama signed into law last night, makes permanent 82 percent of President Bush’s tax cuts. The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) and Congressional Budget Office estimate that making permanent all of the Bush tax cuts would have cost $3.4 trillion over 2013-2022.[2] … -
Two Sequestrations
December 28, 2012
This report has been updated to reflect new data. A prominent part of the “fiscal cliff” is the automatic, across-the-board funding reductions known as sequestration. Required under the 2011 Budget Control Act (BCA), these automatic cuts will occur in both defense and non-defense programs on January 2, 2013 — absent action by the … -
Correcting Misunderstandings About Obama’s Latest Tax Offer Vs. Boehner’s “Plan B”
December 20, 2012
On the tax side of the “fiscal cliff” talks between President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner, the differences between Obama’s latest offer and Boehner’s “Plan B” proposal are far greater than much of the news coverage has suggested. The same holds true for the differences between … -
Chart Book: The Bush Tax Cuts
December 10, 2012
To provide context for the debate about addressing expiring tax provisions and reducing long-term deficits, we’ve collected some of our charts related to the Bush tax cuts, which show that the tax cuts (1) are costly, (2) have worsened inequality, and (3) should be allowed to expire on schedule for incomes over $250,000. 1. The Bush Tax Cuts Are Costly … -
Media Briefing: Peter Orszag Joins CBPP’s Robert Greenstein to Discuss Tax Rates, Tax Deductions, and the "Fiscal Cliff"
December 6, 2012
The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities held a conference call briefing to address growing interest among policymakers in a cap on itemized deductions as a way to achieve a substantial revenue contribution to deficit reduction while maintaining or lowering current tax rates. -
Non-Defense Discretionary Programs Will Face Serious Pressures Under Current Funding Caps
Revised December 6, 2012
President Obama and Congress achieved $1.5 trillion in discretionary program cuts over the next ten years primarily by setting tight caps on annual discretionary funding in the Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011.[1] Congress adhered to those caps in 2012 in writing its appropriations bills for that year, but has yet to enact final … -
Statement of Robert Greenstein, President, in Response to Republican Budget Offer
December 4, 2012
House Republican leaders portray the deficit-reduction offer that they issued yesterday as a fair middle ground. It isn’t. On the crucial issue of revenues, the new Republican offer proposes $800 billion over ten years. Contrast that with the plan that Erskine Bowles, Alan Simpson, and some members of their commission issued in December 2010, … -
Deficit Reduction Deal Without Substantial New Revenues Would Almost Certainly Force Deep Cuts in Housing Assistance
November 26, 2012
The figures in Tables 1a and 1b showing the estimated effects of sequestration on housing assistance and community development programs have been updated and posted here: http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3892 Any major legislation to reduce federal budget deficits that does not include substantial new revenues would almost certainly require … -
Congress Has Cut Discretionary Funding By $1.5 Trillion Over Ten Years
Revised November 8, 2012
Policymakers and budget experts generally agree on the need to reduce projected deficits and put the federal budget on a sustainable path. They have focused less attention, however, on the amount of deficit reduction that the 112th Congress and the President have enacted. Reductions in funding for discretionary (i.e., … -
Are Low-Income Programs Enlarging the Nation’s Long-Term Fiscal Problem?
Revised November 2, 2012
Several conservative analysts and some journalists lately have cited figures showing substantial growth in recent years in the cost of federal programs for low-income Americans. A recent report the Congressional Research Service prepared for Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL) provides one such set of figures.[1] These figures can create … -
$2 Trillion in Deficit Savings Would Achieve Key Goal: Stabilizing the Debt Over the Next Decade
November 1, 2012
Some budget watchers are urging the President and Congress to enact $4 trillion in savings over the next ten years in order to address the deficit problem. The $4 trillion figure has assumed something of a life of its own. In fact, there is no single magic number. For example, policymakers could achieve the most essential … -
The Tension Between Reducing Tax Rates and Reducing Deficits
October 26, 2012
Over the past few months, a number of analyses have highlighted the difficulty of cutting income tax rates deeply, producing a significant revenue contribution to deficit reduction (as part of a larger deficit-reduction package), and maintaining the progressivity of the tax code.[1] Most recently, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) … -
Payroll Tax Cut and Emergency Unemployment Insurance Still Needed to Support the Recovery
October 16, 2012
Among the various tax and spending measures scheduled to expire at the end of this year, the temporary payroll tax cut enacted in 2010 and emergency federal unemployment insurance (UI) are among the most cost-effective at supporting the economic recovery without endangering efforts to control long-term deficits and debt. Given the state … -
Downturn and Legacy of Bush Policies Drive Large Current Deficits
Updated October 10, 2012
This analysis has been updated. To view the updated analysis, click here. Some lawmakers, pundits, and others continue to say that President George W. Bush’s policies did not drive the projected federal deficits of the coming decade — that, instead, it was the policies of President Obama and Congress in 2009 and 2010. But, the fact remains: … -
Moving “Dual Eligibles” Into Mandatory Managed Care and Capping Their Federal Funding Would Risk Significant Harm to Poor Seniors and People With Disabilities
October 10, 2012
As policymakers seek to reduce federal budget deficits, they may face proposals to reduce spending on low-income Medicare beneficiaries who also are eligible for Medicaid (the “dual eligibles”) by 1) requiring them to receive both their Medicare- and Medicaid-covered services through a single managed care plan that would operate … -
What Was Actually in Bowles-Simpson — And How Can We Compare it With Other Plans?
October 2, 2012
Many policymakers have said that they “support,” “endorse,” or otherwise look favorably on “Bowles-Simpson” — the budget plan that Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson issued in December 2010 as co-chairs of President Obama’s National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform.[1] But … -
Misguided “Fiscal Cliff” Fears Pose Challenges to Productive Budget Negotiations
Updated September 24, 2012
The sooner policymakers enact legislation to put the budget on a sustainable long-term path without threatening the vulnerable economic recovery, the better. But, as they prepare for an almost certain post-election "lame duck" session of Congress, policymakers should not make budget decisions with long-term consequences based … -
Romney Budget Proposals Would Necessitate Very Large Cuts in Medicaid, Education, Health Research and Other Programs
Updated September 24, 2012
Governor Mitt Romney’s proposals to cap total federal spending at 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and boost defense spending to 4 percent of GDP would require very large cuts in other programs, both entitlements and discretionary programs. This update of an earlier analysis is based on updated economic and budget … -
Proposed “Tax Reform” Requirements Would Invite Higher Deficits and a Shift in Taxes to Low- and Moderate-Income Families
July 31, 2012
Republican legislation that was introduced in the Senate by Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Finance Committee ranking member Orrin Hatch (R-UT) and in the House by Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dave Camp (R-MI) would establish requirements for tax-reform legislation that could generate higher deficits and substantially shift tax burdens … -
History Shows Spending Cuts in Deficit-Reduction Packages “Stick”
June 27, 2012
Some opponents of including any revenue increases in a deficit-reduction deal — no matter how outweighed by spending cuts — argue that such cuts never “stick.” They claim — as Grover Norquist’s Americans for Tax Reform recently did — that “when bipartisan deals are struck promising to … -
Budget Plans Should Not Rely on "Dynamic Scoring"
Revised June 21, 2012
Some Members of Congress and outside groups are calling for the use of "dynamic scoring" to estimate the budgetary effects of major legislation, notably tax reform proposals. In February, for instance, the House passed a bill (H.R. 3582) requiring the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) … -
How Tax Reform Could Become a Trap:
June 8, 2012
Policymakers are increasingly discussing the need for tax reform, with a number of them calling for large cuts in tax rates — to levels well below the Bush tax rates — as a core element of reform. They contend that sweeping but unspecified cuts in tax expenditures (credits, deductions, and other tax preferences) will offset … -
Joint Tax Committee: Raising Threshold for Bush Tax Cuts from $250,000 to $1 Million Would Lose $366 Billion — Nearly Half the Revenue
May 30, 2012
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's proposal to extend President Bush's income tax cuts for households making up to $1 million a year would lose nearly half of the revenue that President Obama's proposal to extend the tax cuts only for households making up to $250,000 would raise, according to new estimates from Congress' Joint Committee on … -
Statement by Robert Greenstein, President, on Speaker Boehner's Recent Remarks Concerning the Debt Limit
May 16, 2012
No one should underestimate the significance of House Speaker John Boehner's declaration yesterday that he will block an increase in the debt limit next winter unless policymakers match each dollar of debt limit increase with at least a dollar in budget cuts, with no revenue increases. This … -
Romney Budget Proposals Would Require Massive Cuts in Medicare, Medicaid, and Other Programs
Revised May 12, 2012
This report has been superseded by a new version, dated September 24, 2012, that reflects updated data and other information. Click to view the new analysis. Governor Mitt Romney’s proposals to cap total federal spending, boost defense spending, cut taxes, and balance the budget would require extraordinarily large cuts in other programs, both … -
House Budget Bills Would Target Programs for Lower-Income Families While Breaking Last Summer's Bipartisan Deal
Updated May 10, 2012
The House Budget Committee approved on May 7 a package of two bills that would alter the bipartisan deal between President Obama and congressional leaders that was reflected in last summer’s Budget Control Act (BCA). It would eliminate the “sequestration” (automatic cuts) in discretionary programs scheduled for 2013 as … -
Toomey Budget Similar to House-Passed Ryan Budget
May 9, 2012
The Senate may take up, as early as this week, a budget proposal from Senator Patrick J. Toomey (R-PA)[1] that is similar in most important respects to the budget resolution from House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI), which the House passed on March 29. [2] Like the Ryan budget, the Toomey plan (S. Con. Res. 37) would protect and extend tax cuts that … -
A Closer Look at Chairman Ryan's "Sequestration" Proposal
May 8, 2012
On May 7, the House Budget Committee approved a bill designed by Chairman Paul Ryan to alter three aspects of the debt-limit agreement that the President and congressional leaders reached last summer. The bill would produce a total funding level for discretionary programs in fiscal year 2013 that exactly matches the amount in the … -
Eliminating Social Services Block Grant Would Weaken Services for Vulnerable Children, Adults, and Disabled
May 3, 2012
To help generate the savings required by the House-approved budget, the House Ways and Means Committee voted on April 18 to eliminate the Social Services Block Grant (SSBG), a uniquely flexible funding source that helps states meet the specialized needs of their most vulnerable populations, primarily low- and moderate-income children and people who are … -
How the Across-the-Board Cuts in the Budget Control Act Will Work
Revised April 27, 2012
A successor piece to this paper is “The Pending Automatic Budget Cuts”, which was published on February 26, 2013, ahead of the March 1st sequestration. Note: OMB issued a report on September 14 that provides initial estimates and settles some legal issues with respect to the sequestration discussed in this analysis. We intend to update this … -
President's Budget Would Reduce Pell Grant Shortfall; Ryan Budget Would Nearly Triple It
April 26, 2012
Even though its costs are expected to remain flat over the next decade,[1] the Pell Grant program, which helps students from low-income families pay for college, faces an $8 billion funding gap in fiscal year 2014 and a $58 billion shortfall through 2022 because the way Congress has funded it in recent years has made its cost appear … -
Media Briefing: The Effect on the Economy of Raising Tax Rates on High-Income Households as Part of a Balanced Effort to Reduce Deficits - What the Evidence Shows
April 25, 2012
The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities held a conference call briefing on Wednesday, April 25 to discuss the Center’s new, comprehensive analysis of recent findings on the economic effects of raising federal income taxes on upper-income taxpayers.
The panel featured leading authorities on tax policy, Leonard E. Burman, Daniel Patrick Moynihan Professor of Public Affairs at Syracuse University, and William G. Gale, Co-Director of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, and Chye-Ching Huang, Tax Policy Analyst with the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
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House Bill Would Cut Medicaid Funding for Puerto Rico by About $5.5 Billion Through 2019
April 25, 2012
The House Energy and Commerce Committee is scheduled to pass legislation on April 25 that would cut federal Medicaid funding for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico by about $5.5 billion through 2019, relative to current law. The provision is part of legislation that House Republicans are assembling, and plan to bring to the House floor in … -
Recent Studies Find Raising Taxes on High-Income Households Would Not Harm the Economy
April 24, 2012
Many policymakers and pundits assume that raising federal income taxes on high-income households would have serious adverse consequences for the economy. Yet this belief, which has been subject to extensive research and analysis, does not fare well under scrutiny. As three leading tax economists recently concluded in a … -
Medicaid Maintenance-of-Effort Requirement Does Not Stop States from Fighting Fraud
Updated April 24, 2012
Affordable Care Act provisions requiring states to maintain their eligibility standards and procedures for Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program do not impede states’ efforts to ensure program integrity and reduce fraud, waste, and abuse, contrary to claims of House members who seek their repeal. Moreover, … -
Medicare Is Not “Bankrupt”
Updated April 24, 2012
Claims by some policymakers that the Medicare program is nearing “bankruptcy” are misleading. Although Medicare faces major financing challenges, the program is not on the verge of bankruptcy or ceasing to operate. Such charges represent misunderstanding (or misrepresentation) of Medicare’s finances. … -
Media Briefing: Understanding the Annual Reports of the Social Security and Medicare Trustees
April 23, 2012
The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities held a conference call briefing on Monday, April 23 at 4:00 pm (ET) to discuss the 2012 reports of the Social Security and Medicare Trustees.
Paul Van de Water, Senior Fellow at the Center and one of Washington’s leading experts on both Social Security and Medicare, and Robert Greenstein, President of CBPP discussed what the reports say about the long-term financial status of Social Security and Medicare.
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Statement of Paul Van de Water, Senior Fellow, on the 2012 Medicare Trustees’ Report
April 23, 2012
The new report from Medicare’s trustees shows little change from last year’s report in the near-term outlook for the program, while indicating that the program continues to face significant financing challenges in the long run. The projected date of insolvency for Medicare’s … -
The False Choice of National Defense Versus Helping the Poor
April 20, 2012
House committees this week approved sharp cuts in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly known as food stamps), the elimination of the Social Services Block Grant, and other cuts that would harm large numbers of low- and moderate-income Americans.[1] Proponents claim the cuts are needed to generate enough savings … -
What if Chairman Ryan’s Medicaid Block Grant Had Taken Effect in 2001?
April 20, 2012
House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s proposal to convert Medicaid to a block grant, which the House recently passed as part of Chairman Ryan’s overall budget plan, would have cut federal Medicaid funds to most states by more than 35 percent by 2010 — and to several of them by more than 50 percent — if it had been … -
Statement by Chad Stone, Chief Economist, on Pending House Tax Cut and House Committee SNAP Benefit Cuts
April 18, 2012
The House majority is pursuing legislation this week that makes no economic sense. The full House will pass a $46 billion tax cut that’s advertised as a “job-creating” measure, while the House Agriculture Committee approved a plan today to save $36 billion by cutting the … -
House Agriculture Committee Proposal Would Cut 2 Million Off Food Stamps, Reduce Benefits for More Than 44 Million Others
April 18, 2012
The House Agriculture Committee, which the House-approved budget requires to quickly produce $33 billion in savings over the next decade, approved a proposal today that would obtain the entire amount from cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps.[1] The cuts — which would come … -
Letter: Improving the Strength and Solvency of Medicare
April 18, 2012
The Honorable Phil Gingrey, M.D. U.S. House of Representatives Washington, D.C. 202515 Dear Congressman: We are pleased to respond to the letter of March 22 from you and your colleagues asking our views on how to improve the “strength and solvency of Medicare.” We divide our response into three parts: some background … -
New Tax Cuts in Ryan Budget Would Give Millionaires $265,000 on Top of Bush Tax Cuts
Revised April 12, 2012
Even as House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s budget would impose trillions of dollars in spending cuts, at least 62 percent of which would come from low-income programs,[1] it would enact new tax cuts that would provide huge windfalls to households at the top of the income scale. New analysis by the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center (TPC) … -
Tax Foundation Figures Do Not Represent Typical Households’ Tax Burdens
April 2, 2012
This report has been updated. Click here for the updated analysis. The Tax Foundation released its annual “Tax Freedom Day” report today that, once again, leaves a strikingly misleading impression of tax burdens — announcing an “average” tax rate across the United States that’s likely higher than the tax … -
Blog Post: Ryan Plan Unlikely to Balance the Budget for Decades
March 28, 2012
Despite its massive spending cuts, House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s budget (which the House is considering this week) would still have a deficit of $287 billion in fiscal year 2022. And the Congressional Budget Office estimates that it wouldn’t produce a surplus until 2040. Chairman Ryan disagrees, saying in … -
Cooper-LaTourette Budget Significantly to the Right of Simpson-Bowles Plan
March 28, 2012
Reps. Jim Cooper (D-TN) and Steven LaTourette (R-OH) unveiled a budget plan on March 27 that they call the “Simpson-Bowles Budget.” It departs significantly, however, from the Bowles-Simpson commission plan in key respects — raising taxes much less, cutting much more from non-security discretionary programs and less from defense and … -
Blog Post: Another Quarter-Million for Millionaires Under Ryan Tax Plan
March 28, 2012
Our new report shows that House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s tax plan would provide $265,000-a-year tax cuts to the nation’s highest-income households. Here’s an excerpt: Even as House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s budget would impose trillions of dollars in spending cuts, 62 percent of which would come from … -
Blog Post: Chairman Ryan’s Misleading Chart
March 27, 2012
House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan recently summarized his new tax proposal this way: [W]e’re saying get rid of all the special interest loopholes and tax shelters that are disproportionately used by those higher income earners, get rid of those tax shelters, so you can lower tax rates for everybody, and make us better wired for economic growth and job creation. Chairman Ryan has also said that most tax-expenditure benefits go to high-income people. The lead tax chart in Chairman Ryan’s budget document seems to support his statement, suggesting that the tax code includes a series of egregious loopholes (or “tax expenditures”) that mostly flow to very rich individuals. It gives the impression that we can easily eliminate tax … -
Blog Post: Chairman Ryan’s Misleading Chart
March 27, 2012
House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan recently summarized his new tax proposal this way: [W]e’re saying get rid of all the special interest loopholes and tax shelters that are disproportionately used by those higher income earners, get rid of those tax shelters, so you can lower tax rates for everybody, and make us better wired for economic growth and job creation. Chairman Ryan has also said that most tax-expenditure benefits go to high-income people. The lead tax chart in Chairman Ryan’s budget … -
Blog Post: Ryan Roundup, 2012: Everything You Need to Know About Chairman Ryan's Budget
March 23, 2012
Below is a compilation of the CBPP blog posts to date on House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s new budget. Check back here frequently, as we will update this list as we put out new material. http://bit.ly/RyanPosts Overview/General Greenstein Statement March 21, 2012 "The new Ryan budget is a … -
Blog Post: Low-Income Programs Would Bear the Brunt of Ryan Cuts
March 23, 2012
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Chairman Ryan Gets 62 Percent of His Huge Budget Cuts from Programs for Lower-Income Americans
March 23, 2012
House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s budget plan would get at least 62 percent of its $5.3 trillion in nondefense budget cuts over ten years (relative to a continuation of current policies) from programs that serve people of limited means. This stands a core principle of President Obama’s fiscal commission on its head and … -
Ryan Budget's Claim to Finance Its Tax Cuts for the Wealthy By Curbing Their Tax Breaks Does Not Withstand Scrutiny
March 22, 2012
Despite warning that the nation faces the “perils of debt,” House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan introduced a budget on March 20 whose tax proposals would be extremely costly and would disproportionately favor the nation’s highest-income households and large corporations.[1] His budget would cut the top … -
Blog Post: Chairman Ryan and the Medicare Part D Myth
March 21, 2012
Read on Off the Charts Blog House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan claims that his troubling proposal to convert Medicare into a premium support system — where beneficiaries would receive a voucher to buy private coverage or traditional Medicare — would control costs. He notes that the Medicare Part D drug benefit, which private insurers provide, has cost much … -
Blog Post: Greenstein on the Ryan Budget
March 21, 2012
We’ve issued a statement from Robert Greenstein on the budget from House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan. Here’s the opening: The new Ryan budget is a remarkable document — one that, for most of the past half-century, would have been outside the bounds of mainstream discussion due to its extreme nature. In essence, this budget is … -
Statement of Robert Greenstein, President, on Chairman Ryan's Budget Plan
March 21, 2012
The new Ryan budget is a remarkable document — one that, for most of the past half-century, would have been outside the bounds of mainstream discussion due to its extreme nature. In essence, this budget is Robin Hood in reverse — on steroids. It would likely produce the largest redistribution of income from the bottom to the top in modern U.S.… -
Blog Post: Ryan’s Rx for Medicaid Would Add Millions to the Uninsured and Underinsured
March 20, 2012
House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s new budget again proposes to radically restructure Medicaid by converting it into a block grant and to slash federal funding by about one-fifth over the next decade (as well as to repeal health reform’s Medicaid expansion). All told, it would add tens of millions of Americans to the ranks of the uninsured and underinsured. Repealing the … -
Blog Post: A First Look at the Ryan Budget
March 20, 2012
We’ve issued a brief analysis of House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s new budget plan. Here’s the opening: House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s new budget plan specifies a long-term spending path under which, by 2050, most of the federal government aside from Social Security, health care, and defense would cease to … -
CBO Shows Ryan Budget Would Set Nation on Path to End Most of Government Other Than Social Security, Health Care, and Defense By 2050
March 20, 2012
House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s new budget plan specifies a long-term spending path under which, by 2050, most of the federal government aside from Social Security, health care, and defense would cease to exist, according to figures in a Congressional Budget Office analysis released today. [1] The CBO report, prepared at Chairman … -
Can Governor Romney’s Tax Plan Meet Its Stated Revenue, Deficit, and Distributional Goals at the Same Time?
March 2, 2012
Unveiling his tax plan on February 22, Governor Romney's campaign said it would: 1) make permanent President Bush's tax cuts (but not those enacted under President Obama, which are scheduled to expire at the same time and which expanded several refundable tax credits for low- and middle-income families); 2) then cut individual … -
Are the Size and Reach of the Federal Government Exploding?
February 29, 2012
Some political figures and commentators claim that the size and reach of the federal government are exploding, citing the fact that federal spending used to average less than 21 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) but has been at or above 24 percent in the last few fiscal years and is projected to remain significantly … -
Administration’s Corporate Tax Reform Framework a Promising Start but Falls Short on Raising Revenue
Revised February 28, 2012
The Administration has advanced a coherent framework for corporate tax reform that could lead to a more efficient corporate tax regime. [1] The framework's main weakness is that it seeks no deficit-reduction contribution from corporate tax reform, aiming only for revenue neutrality. Given the nation's serious long-term budget problems and the … -
Six Tests for Corporate Tax Reform
Updated February 24, 2012
Congress may consider major changes to the corporate tax code this year. In light of the nation's significant economic and budgetary challenges, a well-designed corporate tax reform proposal should: Contribute to long-term deficit reduction. Corporate tax revenues are now at historical lows as a share of the economy, at a time when the …
