State-By-State Numbers: Critical Fiscal Relief at Stake In Tuesday’s House Vote

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By Michael Leachman, Matt Broaddus and Erica Williams

August 6, 2010

States stand to lose significant amounts of fiscal relief if legislation that the Senate approved yesterday, and the House is due to take up next week, fails to become law. The level of losses is shown on a state-by-state basis in the table below.

Because of the long and deep recession, states have begun their third consecutive year of cutting deeply into their funding for schools, health care, and other basic public services (most state fiscal years begin July 1). Last year’s Recovery Act provided two forms of relief for states: additional federal funding to support state Medicaid programs and additional federal support for state education systems. The additional Medicaid support expires at the end of this year, right in the middle of the current fiscal year for most states. The additional education support is also rapidly disappearing.

The jobs legislation the Senate passed August 5 extends a phased-down version of the Medicaid support for another six months, worth about $15 billion to states, and extends $10 billion in additional education support to save teachers’ jobs.[1]

Failure to extend the relief would force states to lay off more workers, cut more services, and raise taxes more than they would otherwise to balance their budgets. These actions will slow an economy that already is growing too slowly to lower the 9.5 percent unemployment rate and that economists fear is already likely to slow more in the months ahead.

Specifically, here’s the amount of fiscal relief that each state will receive if the Senate legislation is enacted — and lose if it is not.

Estimated Distribution of Fiscal Relief to States in Senate Jobs Bill, in Millions
  Medicaid Education Total   Medicaid Education Total
TOTAL TO STATES $14,981 $9,989 $24,970 Missouri $292 $190 $482
Alabama $133 $149 $282 Montana $38 $31 $69
Alaska $64 $24 $88 Nebraska $69 $59 $128
Arizona $351 $212 $563 Nevada $79 $83 $162
Arkansas $125 $91 $216 New Hampshire $54 $41 $95
California $1,869 $1,201 $3,070 New Jersey $399 $268 $667
Colorado $159 $159 $318 New Mexico $126 $65 $191
Connecticut $199 $110 $309 New York $2,228 $607 $2,835
Delaware $48 $27 $75 North Carolina $343 $298 $641
District of Columbia $54 $18 $72 North Dakota $29 $22 $51
Florida $784 $555 $1,339 Ohio $492 $361 $853
Georgia $228 $322 $550 Oklahoma $188 $119 $307
Hawaii $86 $39 $125 Oregon $156 $118 $274
Idaho $51 $52 $103 Pennsylvania $667 $388 $1,055
Illinois $545 $415 $960 Rhode Island $72 $33 $105
Indiana $227 $207 $434 South Carolina $138 $144 $282
Iowa $128 $96 $224 South Dakota $27 $26 $53
Kansas $100 $92 $192 Tennessee $240 $196 $436
Kentucky $155 $135 $290 Texas $858 $830 $1,688
Louisiana $375 $147 $522 Utah $57 $101 $158
Maine $86 $39 $125 Vermont $47 $19 $66
Maryland $273 $179 $452 Virginia $289 $249 $538
Massachusetts $506 $204 $710 Washington $338 $208 $546
Michigan $380 $318 $698 West Virginia $81 $55 $136
Minnesota $346 $167 $513 Wisconsin $229 $180 $409
Mississippi $151 $98 $249 Wyoming $22 $18 $40

Sources: FMAP allocations reflect Center on Budget and Policy Priorities’ estimates using Medicaid spending projections from February 2010 and unemployment rate projections from February 2010. Expenditures for childless adults shifting from CHIP to Medicaid also would qualify for the higher matching rate. ARRA would be modified so that the base FMAP increase would be lowered from 6.2 percentage points to 3.2 percentage points in the second quarter of federal fiscal year 2011 and to 1.2 percentage points in the third quarter. Figures are rounded.

Notes: Education total excludes shares for administration and the U.S. territories. CBPP’s FMAP estimates may differ somewhat from estimates issued by the Congressional Budget Office (which estimates a total of $16.1 billion under the extension, rather than $15 billion) as well as state-specific estimates generated by state officials, because of differences in the methodology or in the underlying data related to Medicaid spending and projected state unemployment rates.

End Note:

[1] CBPP’s estimate for the additional Medicaid assistance differs somewhat from estimates conducted by the Congressional Budget Office (which estimates a total of $16.1 billion under the extension rather than $15 billion) because of modest differences in the methodology employed.

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