What to Watch for in Next Week’s Census Data on Poverty, Income, and Health Insurance in 2022
End Notes
[1] Health insurance data are available back to 1987 in the CPS and 2008 in the ACS, though survey changes and pandemic-related data disruptions can complicate comparisons over time.
[2] Figures are for the federal government’s traditional SPM, rather than the so-called “anchored” SPM, which uses 2021 thresholds adjusted for inflation. See Danilo Trisi, “Government’s Pandemic Response Turned a Would-Be Poverty Surge Into a Record Poverty Decline,” CBPP, August 29, 2023, Tables 1b and 3b in the supplemental data (Appendix II), https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/governments-pandemic-response-turned-a-would-be-poverty-surge-into.
[3] Census will also publish an estimate of the poverty-reducing impact of the refundable Child Tax Credit; this estimate, however, will not be strictly comparable with the 2021 figure due to differences stemming from which portions of the Child Tax Credit that IRS considered refundable.
[4] Chuck Marr et al., “Policymakers Should Expand Child Tax Credit in Year-End Legislation to Fight Child Poverty,” CBPP, updated October 20, 2022, https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-tax/policymakers-should-expand-child-tax-credit-in-year-end-legislation-to-fight.
[5] Besides the Rescue Plan’s $1,400 stimulus payments and expansion in the Child Tax Credit, other temporary relief measures expiring in 2021 included a larger Earned Income Tax Credit for workers without children and federal expansions in the size, eligibility, and duration of unemployment insurance benefits. In 2022, supplemental SNAP benefits provided in response to the pandemic were in place in most states, but 17 states ended them during or prior to 2022; households in those states did not receive these benefits for some or all months of the year. By the end of 2021, only 8 states had ended these benefits.
[6] For the many benefits of providing government assistance to children, see Arloc Sherman and Tazra Mitchell, “Economic Security Programs Help Low-Income Children Succeed Over Long Term, Many Studies Find,” CBPP, July 17, 2017, https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/economic-security-programs-help-low-income-children-succeed-over; Martha J. Bailey et al., “Is the Social Safety Net a Long-Term Investment? Large-Scale Evidence From the Food Stamps Program,” Review of Economic Studies, June 8, 2023, https://academic.oup.com/restud/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/restud/rdad063/7191876?redirectedFrom=PDF; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, “Consequences of Child Poverty, A Roadmap to Reducing Child Poverty, National Academies Press, 2019, https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/25246/chapter/5.
[7] Laura Weiss, “Some Republicans crack open door to child tax credit compromise,” Roll Call, August 10, 2023, https://rollcall.com/2023/08/10/some-republicans-crack-open-door-to-child-tax-credit-compromise/.
[8] IRS, “SOI Tax Stats – Advance Child Tax Credit Payments in 2021,” https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-advance-child-tax-credit-payments-in-2021. For state-by-state estimates see https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/21in02actc.xls.
[9] Comparisons of CPS health insurance estimates to years before 2018 are complicated due to an update to the survey’s processing system. However, Census created a “bridge” file that allows 2017 estimates to be compared to subsequent years, and a “research” file that enables 2016 to be compared to subsequent years. According to the bridge and research files, the uninsured rate was at a record low of 7.9 percent in both 2016 and 2017. Looking at these figures together with earlier data suggests that the 2022 uninsured rate will tie the lowest on record (in data back to 1987, adjusting for the updated processing system) if it equals 7.9 percent and will be the lowest on record if it falls to 7.8 percent or lower.
[10] Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “Health Insurance Coverage: Estimates from the National Health Interview Survey,” https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nhis/healthinsurancecoverage.htm.
[11] Caroline Hanson et al., “Health Insurance For People Younger Than Age 65: Expiration of Temporary Policies Projected to Reshuffle Coverage, 2023-33,” Health Affairs, May 24, 2023, https://health-policy.healthaffairs.org/hanson/june2023issue/aop.
[12] Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, “Effectuated Enrollment: Early 2023 Snapshot and Full Year 2022 Average,” August 11, 2023, https://www.cms.gov/files/document/early-2023-and-full-year-2022-effectuated-enrollment-report.pdf.
[13] Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Monthly Medicaid and CHIP Application, Eligibility Determination, and Enrollment Reports & Data, https://www.medicaid.gov/medicaid/national-medicaid-chip-program-information/medicaid-chip-enrollment-data/monthly-medicaid-chip-application-eligibility-determination-and-enrollment-reports-data/index.html.
[14] Hanson et al., op cit.
[15] KFF, Medicaid Enrollment and Unwinding Tracker, September 5, 2023, https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/medicaid-enrollment-and-unwinding-tracker/.
[16] The CBO forecasted annual increase over 2023-2024 is larger than any in the CPS since 2008-2009 and larger than any on record in the ACS and NHIS. A methodologically consistent series for the ACS uninsured rate measure is available back to 2009, and the NHIS is available back to 1997. Due to definitional differences, the surveys are not precisely comparable to CBO projections, so comparisons provide helpful context but are approximate. Census Bureau, Health Insurance Data Tables, https://www.census.gov/topics/health/health-insurance/data/tables.html. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Health Interview Survey Early Release Program, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nhis/releases.htm. Congressional Budget Office, “How CBO Defines and Estimates Health Insurance Coverage for People Under Age 65,” May 15, 2018, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53822.
[17] Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, Center for Medicaid & CHIP Services, Letter to State Medicaid Directors, August 30, 2023, https://www.medicaid.gov/sites/default/files/2023-08/state-ltr-ensuring-renewal-compliance.pdf.
[18] CBPP, “Unwinding Watch: Tracking Medicaid Coverage as Pandemic Protections End,” updated September 1, 2023, https://www.cbpp.org/research/health/unwinding-watch-tracking-medicaid-coverage-as-pandemic-protections-end.