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After Reinhart-Rogoff, Reflections on the Relationship Between U.S. Debt and Economic Growth

May 6, 2013

In my two latest posts for the US News & World Report Economic Intelligence blog, I examined the relationship between U.S. government debt and economic growth since World War II, in light of all the attention focused recently on a highly influential...

Today's Jobs Report in Pictures

May 3, 2013

Today’s jobs report shows that labor markets still bear the scars of the Great Recession despite 38 straight months of private-sector job growth and a drop in the unemployment rate from 7.9 percent to 7.5 percent since January. Unemployment remains stubbornly high and many people who would likely have a job in a stronger economy are not even looking for work. Consequently, the share of the...

Today's Jobs Report in Pictures

April 5, 2013

Today’s jobs report, with disappointing job growth and a large drop in the labor force, shows that a robust jobs recovery remains elusive. That situation won’t likely improve in coming months as the sequestration budget cuts begin to slow the economic recovery and make it harder for the unemployed — especially the unprecedented numbers of long-term unemployed (see chart) — to find a job....

Yes, the Ryan Budget Is Contractionary

March 14, 2013

If enacted, House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s budget would slow the economic recovery.  Chairman Ryan selectively uses Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis to argue that his budget offers long-term economic benefits, while dismissing CBO’s finding — in the very...

Seven Other Important Numbers from Today’s Jobs Report

March 8, 2013

Media coverage of the February jobs report has focused on two numbers:  236,000 (the increase in private and government payrolls) and 7.7 percent (the unemployment rate).  Below are some other numbers from the report that paint a more complicated picture of unemployment, as my...

Today's Jobs Report in Pictures

March 8, 2013

Today’s jobs report shows an encouraging increase in payroll employment of 236,000 jobs in February, but a more complicated picture of unemployment. The unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent but the overall labor force shrank by 130,000 people, lowering the labor force participation rate and leaving the share of the population with a job unchanged. Long-term unemployment, which remains...

Raising the Minimum Wage Is Good Economic Policy

March 1, 2013

My latest US News & World Report blog post discusses the economic impact of President Obama’s proposal to raise the minimum wage.  It starts by highlighting that a majority of the panel of about 40 economic experts ...

Austerity Still Bites

February 12, 2013

The American Taxpayer Relief Act (the “fiscal cliff” deal of early January) dialed back the fiscal restraint that was scheduled to take effect — enough, in fact, that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) baseline economic forecast no longer shows the economy contracting in 2013.  Nevertheless,...

Today's Jobs Report in Pictures

February 1, 2013

Employers continued to add jobs in January, but the economy must grow faster to bring unemployment down more quickly -- and scheduled across-the-board budget cuts would only make that harder.

Below are some charts to show how the new figures look in historical context. See my full statement with further...

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