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What Will the Fed Look at in the November Jobs Report?

December 3, 2015

All signs point to the Federal Reserve taking its first baby step to raise interest rates later this month, irrespective of what’s in tomorrow’s jobs report.  But the jobs report will continue to bear watching as a critical determinant of the Fed’s pace of future rate changes.


November Labor Market Slack

The Truth About Corporate Income Taxes

November 13, 2015

My latest post for the US News & World Report Economic Intelligence blog provides a reality check on corporate income taxes.  Here are some excerpts:

Are you...


What to Look at in the October Jobs Report

November 5, 2015

No one knows how tomorrow’s October jobs report will affect Federal Reserve policymakers’ views about whether to start raising interest rates in December.  But here are some things to consider in assessing whether the job market is making the “continued progress toward maximum employment” that the Fed wants to see.

In Focus: Employment - Population Ratio

What to Watch for in Tomorrow’s Jobs Report

October 1, 2015

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen recently noted two salient facts about the labor market that tomorrow’s jobs report won’t change:

The labor market has achieved considerable progress over the past several years. Even so, further improvement in labor market conditions would be welcome because

UE Rate Oct 2015

Fighting Global Warming While Protecting Low-Income Households

September 21, 2015

We can effectively fight global warming with a carbon tax while protecting low-income households from the resulting increase in energy prices, as I explain in a new issue brief from Resources for the Future (RFF) and CBPP.  (I’ll discuss the issue brief at an...

Climate Change - factory smokestack

What to Look for in Tomorrow’s Jobs Report

August 6, 2015

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and her policy-making colleagues have made clear that their decision about when to start raising interest rates will be “data driven.”  Fed watchers will get lots of data in tomorrow’s jobs report, but don’t expect it to give them an epiphany about what the Fed will do when they next meet in September.

The great unknown in the jobs market isn’t whether...

Blurred Crowd

Obama’s Climate Plan Gives States Needed Flexibility

August 4, 2015

Constrained by Congress’s unwillingness to take up climate legislation, President Obama has done the next best thing by using the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) authority under the Clean Air Act to promulgate standards for reducing U.S. electric power plant emissions while giving states and utilities considerable flexibility in how they meet them.     

That flexibility is...

Climate Change - factory smokestack

Supply-Side Miracle Needed for Sustained 4-Percent Growth

July 17, 2015

My latest post for the US News & World Report Economic Intelligence blog explains why prospects for the economy attaining presidential candidate Jeb Bush’s goal of “...

Worker at a Machine

What to Look for in Tomorrow’s Jobs Report

July 1, 2015

Tomorrow’s monthly jobs report will likely show that private employers added jobs in June for the 64th straight month (see chart) but that unemployment remains above 5 percent, its rate at the December 2007 start of the Great Recession.  Here are some key facts to put the headline numbers in perspective.


Private Payrolls Have Grown Every Month for 63 Straight Months

Award-Winning Study: Minimum Wage — Solid Benefits, Small Costs

June 30, 2015

After reviewing more than 200 scholarly papers on the minimum wage for their book What Does the Minimum Wage Do?, Dale Belman and Paul J. Wolfson have found that it does pretty much what policymakers intended it to. 

Their conclusions, in a nutshell:


Jobs and Wages - factory worker