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Posts by Chad Stone

Treasury “Analysis” of Tax Bill Assumes What It Claims to Prove

December 12, 2017

The Treasury Department’s new one-page “analysis” of the Senate Finance Committee-passed tax bill purports to analyze how much more economic growth and revenue that bill would generate. In reality, it does no such thing. It first assumes what the growth will be and then...

Stack of Bills

Taxing College Endowment Income No Way to Pay for Regressive Tax Cuts

December 6, 2017

The House- and Senate-passed Republican tax bills each impose a 1.4 percent excise tax on the income from endowments of some private colleges and universities. The idea appears to stem from a larger proposal, as explained below, to boost educational opportunities for low- and moderate-income students. Congressional Republicans, however, are using the tax to help pay for tax cuts that mainly...

College graduates

GOP Making Highly Unrealistic Claims for Wage Gains from Tax Cuts

November 13, 2017

In my latest post for US News & World Report’s Economic Intelligence, I discuss how Republicans’ claims that their tax cuts will give American workers a...

money puzzle

Trump’s Unrealistic Expectations for Economic Growth

September 16, 2016

Donald Trump’s economic team says his economic plan would raise annual economic growth to 3.5 percent (it’s averaged 2.1 percent since the economy emerged from recession in mid-2009).  Trump himself says...

4% Not a Realistic Target for Future Growth

Reforming Federal Coal-Leasing Policy Would Benefit Taxpayers and Environment

June 29, 2016

My latest post for U.S. News & World Report describes how current coal-leasing policies on federal land fail key economic tests, drawing on a new...

Smokestack and Black Smoke

House Resolution Against Carbon Tax Woefully Off-Base

June 8, 2016

The House is expected to vote on a resolution this week expressing that “a carbon tax would be detrimental to the United States economy.” That contrasts sharply with the findings of knowledgeable scientists and economists.

Scientists recognize that unabated greenhouse gas pollution from burning carbon-...


Obama Budget Modernizes Policies for Unemployed Workers

February 11, 2016

The President’s budget includes a very welcome suite of proposals to modernize assistance for workers who lose their jobs through no fault of their own.  The proposals recognize that today’s labor market is vastly different from the one for which...

Job Application in Blue

Previewing the January Jobs Report

February 4, 2016

Those brave enough to predict think that tomorrow’s jobs report will show a net gain of 188,000 payroll jobs (compared with 292,000 in December) and an unchanged 5.0 percent unemployment rate.  Unless tomorrow’s numbers are substantially different from that, they shouldn’t change the prevailing narrative that labor market conditions continue to...

Job Seeking

Previewing the December Jobs Report

January 7, 2016

Tomorrow’s December jobs report is the first since Federal Reserve policymakers lifted their target for short-term interest rates off zero.   That’s a very small step, and policymakers didn’t claim that the labor market was fully healed.  If they remain true to their word, the path of future rate hikes...

Total Unemployed Plus All Marginally Attached Workers Dec 15

What Will the Fed Look at in the November Jobs Report?

December 3, 2015

All signs point to the Federal Reserve taking its first baby step to raise interest rates later this month, irrespective of what’s in tomorrow’s jobs report.  But the jobs report will continue to bear watching as a critical determinant of the Fed’s pace of future rate changes.


November Labor Market Slack