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Off the Charts Blog: House to Vote Tomorrow on Unprecedented Amendment that Would Increase Hardship and Hold Millions of the Most Vulnerable Americans Hostage to Farm-Bill Politics
June 19, 2013
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House “Budget Transparency” Bill Would Make Budget More Opaque
June 18, 2013
The House Budget Committee may soon consider the proposed “Budget and Accounting Transparency Act” (H.R. 1872), which is identical to a bill that the House passed last year (H.R. 3581). The bill would implement what proponents call “fair-value accounting” for federal credit programs. In fact, the proposal is … -
House Bill Would Artificially Inflate Cost of Federal Credit Programs
Revised June 18, 2013
The House Budget Committee may consider legislation in the near future that would change the federal accounting of direct loans and loan guarantees in ways that would overstate the federal costs of those programs. As a result, the legislation also would overstate total federal spending and deficits. The Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 … -
Policy Basics: Non-Defense Discretionary Programs
June 14, 2013
Non-defense discretionary (NDD) programs comprise domestic and international programs outside of national defense that Congress funds on an annual basis. (They exclude “entitlement” programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.) NDD programs include a broad … -
Too Little to Go Around
June 5, 2013
The House Appropriations Committee’s plan to apportion discretionary funding for fiscal year 2014 among its 12 appropriations subcommittees — which it approved on a May 21 party-line vote — would override a key provision of the 2011 Budget Control Act (BCA) and shift tens of billions of dollars from domestic programs to … -
Media Briefing: Understanding the Annual Reports of the Social Security and Medicare Trustees
June 3, 2013
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Medicare Is Not “Bankrupt”
Updated June 3, 2013
Claims by some policymakers that the Medicare program is nearing “bankruptcy” are misleading. Although Medicare faces financing challenges, the program is not on the verge of bankruptcy or ceasing to operate. Such charges represent misunderstanding (or misrepresentation) of Medicare’s finances. … -
Statement of Paul Van de Water, Senior Fellow, on the 2013 Medicare Trustees' Report
May 31, 2013
Medicare has grown financially stronger in both the short and long term compared to last year, but it continues to face financing challenges in the long run, today’s new report from its trustees shows. The projected date of insolvency for Medicare’s Hospital Insurance (HI) … -
Statement of Robert Greenstein, President, on the 2013 Social Security Trustees' Report
May 31, 2013
Social Security does not face an immediate crisis, the trustees’ report shows, but it does face a funding shortfall two decades from now that the President and Congress should address in the near future so the program can fully meet its promises. Specifically, the trustees estimate that Social Security will be able to pay full … -
Proposed Balanced Budget Amendment is Extreme by International Standards
Revised May 3, 2013
Some proponents of a constitutional balanced budget amendment have argued that other developed countries’ constitutions require balanced budgets, suggesting that such a requirement for the federal government would therefore be appropriate.[2] In reality, however, no European country — not even Germany or Switzerland, which are … -
Obama Proposal to Limit Tax Breaks for High-Income Households Would Reduce Total Charitable Contributions By a Modest 1.6 to 3.0 Percent
Revised April 30, 2013
The President’s fiscal year 2014 budget includes a proposal from previous Obama budgets to limit the tax subsidies that affluent Americans take for deductible expenses and some other tax expenditures. After the President made this proposal in previous budgets, some critics contended it would lead to substantial reductions in … -
Chained CPI Proposal Would Cut Social Security Retirement Benefits by About 2 Percent, on Average
April 23, 2013
The President’s new budget proposes to use the chained Consumer Price Index (CPI) for computing cost-of-living adjustments in Social Security and certain other federal benefits, as well as for indexing key parameters of the tax code.[1] The effect of this proposal on Social Security retirement benefits would vary by a … -
Commentary: Think Obama’s Medicare Savings Aren’t Significant? Take a Closer Look.
April 23, 2013
Commentators, pundits, and some policymakers routinely say that while the President’s new budget takes useful steps to reduce the cost of health care programs, the steps are small and rather timid. This judgment seems rooted in the belief that the budget’s changes affecting Medicare beneficiaries, which save a modest $64 … -
Policy Basics: Deficits, Debt, and Interest
Updated April 18, 2013
Three important budget concepts — deficits (or surpluses), debt, and interest — are often misunderstood. Deficits (or Surpluses) For any given year, the federal budget deficit is the amount of money the federal government spends (also known as outlays) minus the amount of money it … -
Policy Basics: Federal Payroll Taxes
Updated April 15, 2013
The federal government levies payroll taxes primarily on wages and self-employment income and uses most of the revenue to fund Social Security, Medicare, and other social insurance benefits. Federal payroll taxes generated $845 billion in 2012, or 35 percent of all federal revenues (see “Policy Basics: Where Do Federal Tax Revenues Come From?”). … -
Policy Basics: Where Do Federal Tax Revenues Come From?
Revised April 12, 2013
In fiscal year 2012, the federal government spent $3.5 trillion on the services it provides, such as national defense, health care programs like Medicare and Medicaid, Social Security benefits for the elderly and disabled, and investments in infrastructure and education, in addition to interest on … -
Policy Basics: Where Do Our Federal Tax Dollars Go?
Revised April 12, 2013
The federal government collects taxes to finance various public services. As policymakers and citizens weigh key decisions about revenues and expenditures, it is instructive to examine what the government does with the money it collects. In fiscal year 2012, the federal government spent $3.5 … -
President Obama’s Deficit-Reduction Package and Other Proposals in the 2014 Budget
April 11, 2013
The President’s 2014 budget is presented in two parts. One part includes the package of deficit- reduction policies that the President included in his last offer to Speaker Boehner during the “fiscal cliff” negotiations in December 2012. This package would reduce the deficit by $1.8 trillion over the next decade … -
Federal Income Taxes on Middle-Income Families Remain Near Historic Lows
Revised April 11, 2013
Federal taxes on middle-income Americans are near historic lows,[1] according to the latest available data. That’s true both for federal income taxes and total federal taxes.[2] Income taxes: A family of four in the exact middle of the income spectrum will pay only 5.3 percent of its 2013 income in federal income taxes next year, according to a new analysis by … -
Statement by Robert Greenstein, President, on President Obama’s FY 2014 Budget
April 10, 2013
President Obama’s budget includes a $1.8 trillion deficit reduction package that reflects his last offer to Speaker Boehner during their budget talks in December. The new budget — like the President’s offer — represents a substantial compromise on the President’s part; compared to the President’s original offer to the … -
Commentary: The Debate Over the Chained CPI
April 9, 2013
The news that President Obama’s new budget will propose adopting the “chained” Consumer Price Index (CPI) for cost-of-living adjustments in Social Security and other retirement programs, and annual inflation adjustments in the tax code, has intensified the debate on this issue. Some commentators portray this proposal as … -
Tax Foundation Figures Do Not Represent Typical Households’ Tax Burdens
April 2, 2013
The Tax Foundation released its annual “Tax Freedom Day” report today that, once again, can leave a strikingly misleading impression of tax burdens — showing an average federal tax rate across the United States that’s likely higher than the tax rate that 80 percent of U.S. households actually pay. To project the day … -
Sequestration Could Deny Rental Assistance to 140,000 Low-Income Families
April 2, 2013
The budget cuts known as “sequestration,” initiated on March 1, will likely force state and local housing agencies to cut the number of low-income families using Housing Choice Vouchers to afford housing by roughly 140,000 by early 2014.[1] This represents a sharp break from Congress’ bipartisan commitment — … -
Ryan Budget Would Shift Substantial Costs To States and Localities
March 27, 2013
The budget that House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan developed and the full House passed recently would cause federal support for services that state and local governments provide — schools, health care, clean water facilities, and law enforcement, for example — to decline precipitously over the next several years. … -
Ryan Block Grant Proposal Would Cut Medicaid by Nearly One-Third by 2023 and More After That
March 26, 2013
The Medicaid block grant proposal in the budget plan proposed by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, which the House of Representatives passed on March 21, would cut federal Medicaid (and the Children’s Health Insurance Program, or CHIP) funding by 31 percent by 2023, because the funding would no longer keep pace with health … -
Sequestration by the Numbers
March 22, 2013
The automatic budget cuts known as “sequestration” took effect on March 1. Under the requirements of the 2011 Budget Control Act (BCA) as amended by January’s American Taxpayer Relief Act (ATRA), both defense and non-defense programs were automatically cut, or sequestered, reducing total funding by $85 billion. While the press and public have focused on the programmatic effects of … -
Ryan Roundup 2013: Everything You Need to Know About Chairman Ryan’s Latest Budget
March 22, 2013
Below is a compilation of the CBPP analyses and blog posts on House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s budget, which the House has passed. Overview/General Statement: Robert Greenstein, President, on Chairman Ryan’s Budget Plan March 12, 2013 “When House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan released his previous budget last … -
Ryan Budget Would Undermine Safety Net’s Work Supports
March 21, 2013
House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan justifies the massive cuts he proposes in programs for low- and moderate-income Americans in part by claiming that the current safety net “can create a powerful disincentive to get ahead.”[1] He uses this argument to defend converting both Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition … -
Commentary: Why Balancing the Budget by the End of the Decade Is Not the Right Goal
March 20, 2013
As the House and Senate consider their respective budget resolutions this week, a key point of debate will be whether balancing the budget over the decade is an essential goal. We don’t think it is. We agree with Alice Rivlin, a former director of both the Congressional Budget … -
Ryan Budget Would Slash SNAP Funding By $135 Billion Over Ten Years
Revised March 20, 2013
House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s budget plan includes cuts in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly known as the Food Stamp Program) of $135 billion — almost 18 percent — over the next ten years (2014-2023),[1] which would necessitate ending assistance for millions of low-income families, … -
Ryan Budget Understates Defense Spending by $100 Billion
March 19, 2013
The Ryan budget understates defense spending by $100 billion over the next ten years. It claims $100 billion in defense savings that, in reality, would not materialize because they are flatly inconsistent with Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates of the amount of defense spending that would result from the amount of defense … -
An Apples-to-Apples Comparison of the Deficit-Reduction Figures in the House and Senate Budget Plans
March 19, 2013
The House and Senate are scheduled to consider the budget resolutions that their respective budget committees approved last week. These two budgets — one drafted by House Budget Committee Chair Paul Ryan, the other by Senate Budget Committee Chair Patty Murray — offer sharply contrasting visions.[1] Yet they are not … -
Paul Van de Water Testimony: Financing Medicare and Medicaid
March 19, 2013
Chairman Pitts, Ranking Member Pallone, and members of the subcommittee, I appreciate the invitation to appear before you today on the importance of preserving Medicare and Medicaid. Budgetary entitlements of many kinds are designed to guarantee Americans adequate protection in case of illness, disability, or economic misfortune. Efforts … -
The Ryan Budget’s Tax Cuts: Nearly $6 Trillion in Cost and No Plausible Way to Pay for It
March 17, 2013
The new budget from House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan proposes a series of dramatic tax cuts that would cost nearly $6 trillion in lost federal revenue over the next decade (see Figure 1), and that would provide the lion’s share of their benefits to high-income households and corporations. But, despite its stated … -
Medicare in Ryan’s 2014 Budget
March 15, 2013
The Medicare proposals in the 2014 budget resolution developed by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) are essentially the same as those in last year’s Ryan budget. Once again, Chairman Ryan proposes to replace Medicare’s guarantee of health coverage with a premium-support voucher and raise the age of eligibility … -
Chairman Ryan Gets 66 Percent of His Budget Cuts from Programs for People With Low or Moderate Incomes
March 15, 2013
House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s new budget plan would get at least 66 percent of its $5 trillion in non-defense budget cuts over ten years (relative to a continuation of current policies) from programs that serve people of limited means, standing a core principle of the Simpson-Bowles fiscal commission on its head. Not much … -
Commentary: Murray’s More Evenhanded Approach to Deficit Reduction Contrasts Sharply With Ryan’s
March 14, 2013
The budget that Senate Budget Committee Chair Patty Murray released yesterday stands in sharp contrast to the one that her House counterpart, Paul Ryan, released on Tuesday. As I wrote Tuesday, his budget is extreme.[1] Hers is more balanced and appropriate to meet the nation’s economic and fiscal challenges. The … -
Statement by Robert Greenstein, President, On Chairman Ryan’s Budget Plan
March 12, 2013
When House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan released his previous budget last year, I wrote that for most of the past half century, its extreme nature would have put it outside the bounds of mainstream discussion. It was, I wrote, “Robin Hood in reverse — on … -
Deficit Reduction Should Not Increase Poverty and Hardship
March 11, 2013
Executive Summary With President Obama and lawmakers of both parties vowing to achieve further deficit reduction, the stakes are high for low- and moderate-income Americans. If policymakers heavily target programs that serve vulnerable Americans, they will run the risk of increasing poverty and hardship and reducing opportunity for … -
Jared Bernstein Testimony: Tax Expenditures: How Cutting Spending Through the Tax Code Can Lower the Deficit, Improve Efficiency, and Boost Fairness in the US Tax Code
March 5, 2013
Chairman Murray, ranking member Sessions, I thank you for the opportunity to testify today. These are uniquely challenging times for fiscal policy. Our national economy continues to face a series of self-imposed fiscal deadlines in the forms of cliffs, ceilings, and most recently, sequestration. Various independent analyses find … -
Commentary: Senate Republican Proposal Fails to Address Key Sequestration Problems
February 28, 2013
A measure from Senators James Inhofe (R-OK) and Patrick Toomey (R-PA), which the Senate is expected to consider today, is presented by supporters as giving the President the needed flexibility to address the impending $85 billion in across-the-board spending cuts (“sequestration”), enabling him to cut some programs more and some … -
Economic Downturn and Legacy of Bush Policies Continue to Drive Large Deficits
Updated February 28, 2013
Federal deficits and debt have been sharply higher under President Obama, but the evidence continues to show that the Great Recession, President Bush’s tax cuts, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq explain most of the deficits that have occurred on Obama’s watch — based on the latest Congressional Budget Office projections … -
Tax Expenditure Reform: An Essential Ingredient of Needed Deficit Reduction
February 27, 2013
The revenue raised as part of January’s American Tax Relief Act (ATRA) came primarily as a result of raising tax rates on high-income households. Yet throughout the negotiations around avoiding the fiscal cliff last year, both President Obama and Speaker Boehner called for raising revenue through limiting tax deductions, exclusions, and other tax breaks … -
The Pending Automatic Budget Cuts
February 26, 2013
This report has been updated to reflect new data. In budget circles and beyond, all eyes are focused on the automatic budget cuts, known as “sequestration,” that are slated to take effect on March 1. But, in fact, March will bring two separate sequestrations — the first and well-known one of March 1 and a second and much smaller one … -
Testimony of Robert Greenstein, President, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Before the Senate Committee on Finance
February 26, 2013
Mr. Chairman and distinguished members of the Finance Committee, I appreciate the invitation to testify here today. As we all know, the nation faces fiscal and economic challenges, and we will have to make some tough decisions to put the budget on a more sustainable fiscal course and to do so without hindering a still-too-weak economic … -
Commentary: A Look at the New Simpson-Bowles Plan
February 22, 2013
The new deficit-reduction plan that Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles issued this week calls for $2.4 trillion of additional deficit reduction over the next ten years (through 2023), with roughly $2.1 trillion in policy changes and about $300 billion in resulting interest savings.[1] Of the policy savings, about $700 billion would come … -
Testimony of Chad Stone, Chief Economist, on Unintended Consequences: Is Government Effectively Addressing the Unemployment Crisis?
February 14, 2013
Mr. Chairman and members of the subcommittee, thank you for the opportunity to testify on this important topic. The first half of my testimony focuses on the macroeconomic roots of our current jobs crisis and the second part focuses specifically on unemployment insurance. There is no doubt that the United States continues to suffer a … -
Testimony of Robert Greenstein, President, Before Senate Budget Committee
February 13, 2013
I appreciate the invitation to testify today on the impact of federal budget decisions on families and communities. This is an important matter. As you know, the nation will have to make tough decisions to put the budget on a more sustainable fiscal course. The issue is not only whether policymakers act to secure adequate … -
$1.5 Trillion in Deficit Savings Would Stabilize the Debt Over the Coming Decade
February 11, 2013
Policymakers could stabilize the public debt over the coming decade with $1.5 trillion in additional deficit savings, according to the Center’s updated calculations, which are based on the new budget projections that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released this week. Policymakers could achieve these savings with $1.3 … -
Testimony of Jared Bernstein, Senior Fellow, Before the House Education and Workforce Committee
February 5, 2013
Chairman Kline and ranking member Miller, I thank you for inviting me to testify today on issues directly in the wheelhouse of this committee: education, skills, and jobs. My testimony begins by looking at the current jobs situation with an emphasis on educational investments. I then discuss ways in which recent budget cuts are threatening the …




