Budget — Federal Archive
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Reinstatement of Pay-As-You-Go is a Welcome Step Toward Fiscal Responsibility
December 20, 2006
House and Senate Democratic leaders have pledged to reinstate the “Pay-As-You-Go” rule early in the 110th Congress. Such a rule, which was in effect in the 1990s, helps to enforce fiscal discipline by requiring that any tax cut or increase in entitlement spending be offset by an increase in other taxes or reduction in other entitlement … -
From Surplus to Deficit
December 13, 2006
The adjournment of the 109th Congress provides an opportunity for a broad look at the budget legislation enacted since a new Administration and Congress took office at the start of 2001. This review finds that the national debt at the end of fiscal year 2006 (which ended September 30) was nearly twice as large as it would have been if Congress had left … -
Basic Questions and Answers About the Deficit
October 30, 2006
1. How big is the deficit? In fiscal year 2006, which ended October 1, the federal deficit was $248 billion, meaning the government spent $248 billion — or 10 percent — more than it collected that year. Put another way, this means that for every $10 of taxes the U.S. government collected last year, it spent $11 to … -
Appropriations for 2006
Revised October 13, 2006
Congress completed action on the regular appropriations bills for fiscal year 2006 on December 21, 2005, after imposing a one-percent across-the-board cut on all funding except that for veterans or emergencies. The one-percent cut is in addition to the specific reductions or increases otherwise provided by the 2006 bills.… -
Recent Action by Congress Sets Up Larger Appropriations Cuts in Lame-Duck Session
October 13, 2006
As a result of action Congress took before adjourning for the elections, widespread cuts in domestic appropriated programs are likely to be made during Congress’ lame-duck session (or early next year, if Congress fails to complete action on appropriations for fiscal year 2007 in November or December). Congress shifted $5.3 billion that Senate … -
Deficit Announcement Masks Bigger Story
October 11, 2006
On Wednesday, October 11, the Treasury announced the final deficit figure for fiscal 2006. That figure is $248 billion. This figure is $42 billion lower than the $290 billion deficit that the Office of Management and Budget estimated on July 11, which itself was lower than the deficit estimates that OMB and CBO issued last winter.[1] … -
Statement of Robert Greenstein in Response to Announcement of the 2006 Deficit Figure
October 11, 2006
"The announcement seems like good news, but it's more of a temporary blip than real progress. The improvement in the deficit may not extend even beyond this year, and the long-term outlook remains bleak. Despite Administration assertions, the evidence indicates this temporary improvement has … -
CBO Analysis Finds Increased Revenues Would Offset Increased Entitlement Costs under Senate Immigration Bill
September 15, 2006
The immigration bill passed by the U.S. Senate would affect the federal budget by increasing both the number of legal immigrants qualifying for federal entitlement programs and the number of immigrants filing tax returns and paying income and payroll taxes. On August 18, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issued a new … -
House Proposal to Reform Earmarks Employs Double Standard, Largely Exempting Earmarks Packaged as Special Interest Tax Breaks
September 14, 2006
The House is about to consider a change in its rules that would require any committee that includes an “earmark” in legislation to report the name of the Member who sponsored the earmark.[1] One aspect of this proposal jumps out: while earmarked funding would be subject to this rule, earmarked special-interest tax breaks would be exempt from the rule, except for tax breaks that … -
Don't Pop the Corks: CBO Outlook for the Federal Budget Is Still Bleak
August 17, 2006
The Congressional Budget Office today released new budget projections showing a deficit of $260 billion for fiscal year 2006, which will end on September 30.[1] Although such a deficit would be $30 billion lower than the Office of Management and Budget estimated on July 11, and just over $100 billion less than CBO projected last March (excluding the … -
Even With New Budget Projections, Budget Deterioration from 2000-2006 Will Be the Largest 6-Year Deterioration in Half a Century
Revised August 17, 2006
The Congressional Budget Office has issued new estimates that show that the budget deficit will be 2.0 percent of the Gross Domestic Product in 2006, down from the 2.8 percent of GDP that CBO had estimated (under Administration policies) earlier this year. Over the last month, the Administration has celebrated the reduction in … -
Budget Process Bill Would Result In Deep Cuts In Medicare and Medicaid
Revised August 9, 2006
The Senate Budget Committee has approved a bill (S. 3521) that would radically alter federal budget procedures and could lead to deep cuts over time in the vast majority of domestic programs, including Medicaid, Medicare, and SCHIP. While the odds are slim that the legislation will be considered by the full Senate this year, the … -
Combined Effect of Senate Proposals Would Be To Finance Near-Repeal of the Estate Tax with Cuts in Medicare, Veterans Benefits, School Lunches, and Other Programs
August 9, 2006
At the urging of Senate Republican leader Bill Frist, the Senate last week considered a House-passed proposal to repeal most but not all of the estate tax. The measure contains no “offsets”; its large cost would be financed through higher deficits. In June, the Senate Budget Committee approved a far-reaching bill to make major changes in … -
Gregg Bill Would Make Far-Reaching Changes In Budget Rules
Revised August 9, 2006
Executive Summary Sweeping legislation to radically alter federal budget procedures, designed by Senate Budget Committee chairman Judd Gregg and endorsed by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, was adopted by the Budget Committee on June 20. The bill may be brought to the Senate floor this summer (either as a single piece of … -
Combined Effect of Senate Proposals Would Be To Finance Near-Repeal of the Estate Tax with Cuts in Medicare, Veterans Benefits, School Lunches, and Other Programs
August 8, 2006
The Congressional Budget Office announced on August 4 that it now projects the deficit will be $260 billion for fiscal year 2006, which ends on September 30.[1] CBO’s projection of the deficit for the current year is $30 billion below the level projected by the Administration when it released its Mid-Session Review of the Budget on July 11. … -
Budget Process Bill Threatens Veterans’ Programs
August 4, 2006
The Senate Budget Committee has approved a bill (S. 3521) that would radically alter federal budget procedures and could lead to deep cuts over time in the vast majority of domestic programs, including veterans’ programs. While the odds are slim that the legislation will be considered by the full Senate this year, the bill is nevertheless important because it appears to reflect an … -
Putting Their Cards on the Table: Senate Budget Bill Indicates Intention to Pay for Tax Cuts by Sweeping Cuts in Programs for Middle- and Low-Income Households
August 2, 2006
The tax cuts enacted since 2001 have been financed through borrowing — that is, through higher deficits. The sharp estate-tax cut that was approved by the House of Representatives on July 29 and is about to be considered in the Senate would be deficit financed, as well. A new Treasury Department analysis issued on July 25 acknowledges, … -
Another Commission? The Wolf Entitlement Commission Includes Favorable and Unfavorable Aspects
August 1, 2006
Representative Frank Wolf (R-VA) recently introduced legislation (H.R. 5552) to establish a commission to study the long-term fiscal problems the United States faces.[1] The commission would propose legislation to address these problems, and Congress would be required to vote up or down on that legislation. The bill also permits a … -
Statement by Robert Greenstein: House Leadership Invokes “Martial Law,” Forcing Members to Vote on Key Bills Without Full Knowledge of What They Are Voting On: Move Represents Erosion Of The Democratic Process
July 28, 2006
The House Republican Leadership has announced its intention to have the House vote, before adjourning on Friday or Saturday, on several major pieces of legislation that are not yet available to House members in final form because behind-closed-door negotiations on the proposals are still going on.… -
Sunset Commission Proposals Would Not Provide "Good Government"
July 21, 2006
The House Government Reform Committee on July 20 approved, on close to party-line votes, two bills that would establish “sunset commissions.” These sunset commission proposals could be considered by the full House as early as the week of July 24. The two bills before the Government Reform Committee are H.R. 5766, introduced by Representative Todd Tiahrt (R-KS), and H.R. 3282, … -
The Recent Upturn in Revenues and OMB's Mid-Session Review
Revised July 14, 2006
Summary The Mid-Session Review issued on July 11 by the White House Office of Management and Budget projects that fiscal year 2006 revenues will be significantly above — and the 2006 deficit significantly below — the levels forecast in the President’s budget in February. This year’s strong … -
Senate “Line-Item Veto” Proposal Invites Abuse by Executive Branch
July 12, 2006
The Senate Budget Committee recently approved the Legislative Line Item Veto Act of 2006, a variation of a proposal the Bush Administration submitted earlier this year. The Budget Committee adopted this measure as part of a larger budget-process bill that it passed on June 20. [1] The Senate is expected to consider the line-item veto measure later this session, most likely as a stand-alone … -
A Smoking Gun: President's Claim That Tax Cuts Pay For Themselves Refuted by Administration's Own Analysis
July 11, 2006
In remarks on July 11 touting revised deficit projections in the Mid-Session Review of the Budget, President Bush once again claimed that tax cuts pay for themselves: “Some in Washington say we had to choose between cutting taxes and cutting the deficit….Today’s numbers show that that was a false choice. The economic growth fueled by tax relief has helped send our tax … -
Discretionary Caps in Gregg Bill Would Lead To Overly Deep Cuts
Revised July 7, 2006
Senate Budget Committee Chairman Judd Gregg (R-NH) has introduced legislation (S. 3521) that would make a number of far-reaching changes in the federal budget process. The Senate Budget Committee is scheduled to mark up that legislation on June 20. Included in the legislation are provisions that would establish … -
Proposed Discretionary Caps Would Hit States Hard
July 5, 2006
The Senate Budget Committee on June 20 approved legislation (S. 3521) crafted by Budget Committee Chairman Judd Gregg (R-NH) that would make a number of far-reaching changes in the federal budget process.[1] Included in the legislation, which the full Senate may consider this summer, are provisions that would establish … -
Combined Effect of Bills Moving in the Senate Would Be To Finance Near-Repeal of the Estate Tax With Cuts in Medicare, Veterans Benefits, School Lunches, and Other Programs
June 26, 2006
At the urging of Senate Republican leader Bill Frist, the House of Representatives last week approved a measure designed by House Ways and Means Committee chairman Bill Thomas to repeal most but not all of the estate tax. The measure contains no “offsets”; its large cost would be financed through higher deficits.… -
Senate Budget Process Legislation Embraces "Misguided 45 Percent Trigger"
June 26, 2006
Executive Summary Major budget-process legislation approved by the Senate Budget Committee on June 20 seeks to limit the share of Medicare expenditures that are financed by general revenues. The legislation (S. 3521), crafted by Senate Budget Committee Chairman Judd Gregg (R-NH), would establish a new Senate … -
House "Line-Item Veto" Proposal Invites Abuse By Executive Branch
June 19, 2006
The House Budget Committee has approved the Legislative Line Item Veto Act of 2006, a variation of a proposal that the Bush Administration submitted earlier this year.[1] The House floor is expected to consider this legislation during the week of June 18, while the Senate Budget Committee is scheduled to consider a different … -
Biennial Budgeting: Do The Drawbacks Outweigh The Advantages?
June 16, 2006
Senate Budget Committee Judd Gregg (R-NH) has introduced legislation (S. 3521) that would make far-reaching changes in the federal budget process. Included in that legislation is a proposal to move the federal budget from an annual to a biennial cycle. Proponents of biennial budgeting present it as a reform that will … -
Administration's Argument Against Pay-As-You-Go For Tax Cuts Does Not Withstand Scrutiny
June 13, 2006
Bipartisan budget watchdog groups such as the Concord Coalition and the Committee for Economic Development have called for reinstatement of the Pay-As-You-Go rules, which helped move the budget from deficits to surpluses in the 1990s. Eminent figures such as former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan and David Walker, head of the … -
President's 2007 Budget Renews Same Number of Housing Vouchers Funded in 2006
Revised April 25, 2006
Executive Summary The President’s budget requests $15.9 billion in fiscal year 2007 for tenant-based rental assistance under the Housing Choice Voucher Program, the nation’s largest low-income housing program. The request would renew approximately 2,070,000 vouchers in 2007, about equal to the total number of … -
Proposed Line-Item Veto Legislation Would Invite Abuse by Executive Branch
Revised April 21, 2006
The Administration has proposed the Legislative Line Item Veto Act of 2006, which was recently introduced in Congress by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) as S. 2381 and by Representative Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as H.R. 4890.[1] Both the House and the Senate are expected to consider the proposal in coming months. The … -
Changing The Budget Rules
April 18, 2006
In the budget it presented to Congress last month, the Bush Administration proposed a series of changes in the rules under which Congress considers and approves the federal budget.[1] The principal Administration proposals have a common theme: the new rules would allow unlimited tax cuts while imposing tight limits on … -
The Republican Study Committee Budget Plan
April 6, 2006
The Republican Study Committee, a group of very conservative members of the House of Representatives, issued a budget plan on March 8, 2006. That plan may be offered as an amendment later this week to the congressional budget resolution reported by the House Budget Committee. The … -
How High Did the Senate Budget Resolution Set Domestic Discretionary Funding for 2007?
Revised March 29, 2006
There has been misunderstanding regarding the amount of funding for domestic discretionary programs added to the Senate budget resolution on the Senate floor. Some have thought that the Senate floor added $16 billion in 2007 funding for domestic discretionary programs. Not counting an amendment offered by Senators Arlen … -
Background on Potential Budget Gimmick in Tax Reconciliation Conference
March 28, 2006
Issued Jointly With Lawmakers currently trying to work out differences between the versions of the tax cut reconciliation legislation that the House and Senate passed last year reportedly are considering using a gimmick — which entails claiming that one tax cut “pays for” another tax cut — to evade an important Senate rule. That … -
Press Release: Joint Statement Opposing Potential Budget Gimmick
March 28, 2006
Issued Jointly With Congress is contemplating a gimmick that would circumvent existing budget enforcement rules in the Senate and increase long-term deficits. House and Senate conferees on the reconciliation tax bill are considering a proposal to offset part of the short-term revenue loss (in 2011 through 2015) from one tax cut by enacting another … -
Five-Year Discretionary Caps Would Be Unwise at This Time
March 27, 2006
The President has again proposed enactment of binding caps for each of the next five years on overall levels of funding and expenditures for discretionary programs (i.e., programs that are non-entitlements). Under the proposal, the cap for each fiscal year through 2011 would be set at the overall levels for discretionary … -
A Pay-As-You-Go Rule That Would Exempt All Tax Cuts Would Make a Mockery of Efforts to Restore Fiscal Discipline
March 20, 2006
The House of Representatives will apparently consider legislation in coming weeks that would make a number of changes in the federal budget process. It is possible that this legislation will include a provision endorsed by the House Budget Committee in 2004 that would resurrect the “pay-as-you-go” rules, but in a … -
"Joint Budget Resolution" Could Lead to Gridlock on Appropriations and Shift Power to the Executive Branch
March 16, 2006
Under the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, budget resolutions are “concurrent resolutions” that do not go to the President for his signature or veto and are not laws. Also under current rules, if a budget resolution has not been approved by May 15, appropriations bills may be brought to the House floor so that … -
Proposed Cap Would Require Deep Cuts In Entitlement Programs
March 16, 2006
The Republican Study Committee, a group of conservative members of the House of Representatives, has proposed to establish an “entitlement cap” that limits total expenditures for entitlement programs other than Social Security and requires projected expenditures for such programs to be cut $1.8 trillion over the next … -
Has the Safety Net Greatly Expanded over the Last Five Years?
March 7, 2006
The Heritage Foundation recently issued a paper by Brian Riedl claiming that programs for the poor have expanded greatly on President Bush’s watch and have done very well in the budget changes of recent years. This claim has been promoted in several op-eds by Riedl and repeated in various media interviews. Riedl often … -
Program Cuts in the President's Budget
February 23, 2006
The President’s budget proposes substantial cuts in funding for domestic discretionary programs over the next five years. The budget specifies the funding level for each program in 2007, but the levels for specific programs for years after 2007 — the years in which the overall level of reductions in domestic … -
Interested Parties Memo on the Initial Assessment of the President’s 2007 Budget: Impacts on Housing Voucher Program and Hurricane Recovery
Revised February 17, 2006
On February 6, the President released a budget request for fiscal year 2007 that proposes to cut $622 million (1.8 percent) from the HUD budget, in comparison to FY 2006 funding levels, not counting losses due to inflation. The request recommends major cutbacks in community development, … -
New Price Data Show Additional LIHEAP Funding Still Needed
February 17, 2006
Before departing in December for its winter recess, Congress enacted legislation that appropriated funding for the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program at a level one percent below last year’s level. Congress reduced LIHEAP funding despite the fact that the prices of heating fuels used by LIHEAP beneficiaries have … -
The Cost and Coverage Impact of the President’s Health Insurance Budget Proposals
February 15, 2006
In this analysis I report the results of my efforts to assess the impact that the President’s health insurance budget proposals on government costs and insurance coverage in the U.S. The results reported here are from the microsimulation model that I developed with the generous assistance of the Kaiser Family Foundation. I … -
The Administration’s Medicaid Proposals Would Shift Federal Costs To States
February 14, 2006
In its new budget, the Administration proposes net federal Medicaid funding cuts equal to $14 billion over the next five years and $35.5 billion over ten years through a combination of legislative changes and regulatory action. [1] These reductions follow on the heels of significant federal Medicaid cuts ($4.9 billion over five … -
Administration Proposals To Hide Tax-Cut Costs
February 14, 2006
The President’s 2007 budget includes two proposals that risk corrupting federal budget rules in order to facilitate passage of Administration tax cuts. One proposal calls on Congress to adopt a new scoring convention that would make the cost of extending the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts disappear; under this proposal, legislation to … -
President's Budget Would Cut Food for Over 420,000 Low-Income Seniors
Revised February 14, 2006
President Bush’s fiscal year 2007 budget would eliminate funding for the Commodity Supplemental Food Program (CSFP), terminating food assistance to 420,000 low-income seniors in an average month. CSFP provides monthly nutritious food packages primarily to low-income seniors aged 60 and older in parts of 32 states, the District of Columbia, and two Indian reservations. [1] The typical … -
The President's Budget: A Preliminary Analysis
Revised February 10, 2006
An administration’s budget is a statement of its priorities. This budget’s priorities are clear: it features cuts in numerous domestic programs that serve low- and middle-income families alongside continued — and substantially expanded — tax cuts of very large size that concentrate their benefits on … -
The Hidden Cuts in Domestic Appropriations
February 9, 2006
Under the Administration’s budget, funding for domestic discretionary programs would be cut by $183 billion over the next five years, relative to OMB’s own budget baseline (i.e., relative to the 2006 funding levels adjusted for inflation). By 2011, the last year covered by the budget, funding for … -
Federal Grants to States and Localities Cut Deeply in Fiscal Year 2007 Federal Budget
February 7, 2006
Grants to state and local governments have long been an important way in which the federal government supports and administers programs efficiently. The new budget, however, continues to significantly erode those grants. This leaves states and localities the option of either curtailing services or increasing their own taxes to … -
Despite Inclusion of “Marriage-Promotion” Funding, Budget Bill Would Penalize States That Provide TANF Assistance to Poor Married Families
January 31, 2006
In December, the House and Senate each passed slightly different versions of the budget reconciliation conference agreement.[1] The bills include a set of provisions related to the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) block grant, including significant changes in the work requirements that states and families must meet. These changes differ significantly from previous versions of TANF … -
President's Health Care Tax Cut Proposals Are Likely To Weaken Employer-Based Health Insurance, Primarily Benefit High-Income People, and Worsen Deficits
January 31, 2006
In tonight’s State of the Union address and as part of the upcoming fiscal year 2007 budget, President Bush is expected to propose major new tax cuts related to health care.[1] Chief among them could be major expansions of Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and a new income tax deduction for out-of-pocket medical costs. These … -
New CBO Data Indicate Growth in Long-Term Income Inequality Continues
January 29, 2006
The Congressional Budget Office recently released extensive data on household incomes and tax liabilities for 2003.[1] CBO issues the most comprehensive data available on changes in incomes and taxes for different income groups, capturing trends at the very top of the income scale that are not shown, for example, in Census data. The new CBO report highlights the degree to which … -
Increases in CBO's Revenue Projections Do Not Show Tax Cuts Are Helping the Economy
January 27, 2006
New forecasts issued by the Congressional Budget Office confirm that if the tax cuts and Alternative Minimum Tax relief are extended, the nation faces large and growing deficits over the next ten years, with total deficits of between $3.5 and $4 trillion over that period.[1] While still quite high, CBO’s current deficit … -
Out in the Cold: How Much LIHEAP Funding Will Be Needed to Protect Beneficiaries from Rising Energy Prices?
Revised January 18, 2006
Last year, Congress provided nearly $2.2 billion for the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). LIHEAP helps very poor households, including many elderly, pay their home heating (and cooling) bills. Most of the assistance prevents heat from being turned off in northern states in the dead of winter, but some also … -
Summary of TANF Work Participation Provisions in the Budget Reconciliation Bill
January 18, 2006
The budget reconciliation bill includes a set of provisions related to TANF and federal child care funding, including changes to TANF work participation rules.[1] This document provides a brief summary and a more detailed explanation of each change. In brief: Effective October 1, 2006, each state would be required to meet a 50 percent participation rate for all families … -
Assessing the Effects of the Budget Conference Agreement on Low-Income Families and Individuals
Revised January 9, 2006
Some Congressional leaders are claiming that the low-income provisions in the conference agreement on the budget reconciliation bill are modest and will not harm vulnerable families. Many of the legislation’s key provisions were altered behind closed doors in weekend negotiations, and the legislation was not released until after 1:00 the morning of December 19, just hours before … -
Drop in Deficit in 2005 Does Not Mean Tax Cuts Are Spurring Economic and Revenue Growth; New IRS Data Confirm Tax Cuts Lose Revenue
Revised January 6, 2006
According to final Treasury Department figures, the deficit for fiscal year 2005 was $319 billion, down significantly both from last year’s level and from projections made at the beginning of this year. This progress is due to an increase in tax collections from last year (and from what had been projected earlier this year). Some are using this fact to argue that the tax cuts … -
House Pension Bill Would Make Some 2001 Tax Cuts Permanent For The First Time
Revised January 6, 2006
Pension legislation passed by the House on December 15 contains a series of pension-related tax provisions that raise serious budgetary concerns and pose significant equity issues. The legislation (H.R. 2830, the Pension Protection Act of 2005) contains measures crafted by the Ways and Means Committee that would — for the first time — make permanent some of the tax cuts enacted … -
State Budgets Would Be Squeezed Under Budget Conference Agreement
Revised January 6, 2006
The budget reconciliation conference agreement which passed the Senate would have a significant impact on state budgets. The agreement includes numerous changes to low-income programs in which states share costs with the federal government, such as Medicaid, Child Support Enforcement, and TANF. On the whole, CBO estimates indicate that over the next five years, the loss to states from reductions in … -
What Do the Across the Board Cuts Mean for Domestic Appropriations
Revised January 6, 2006
To comply with budget targets it set last April, Congress cut fiscal year 2006 funding for domestic programs by $9 billion, or 2.3 percent on average, below the 2005 level adjusted for inflation.[1] In addition to the specific cuts or increases contained in the 2006 appropriations bills, which netted to a cut of $9 billion, … -
Why the Application of the Expected Across-the-Board Appropriations Cut to Defense Is Likely To Be Purely Cosmetic
Revised January 6, 2006
Application of the one percent across-the-board appropriations cut to the Defense Department enacted in December is likely to be illusory. Defense funds that are reduced through the across-the-board cut now are likely to be fully restored this spring, when a supplemental appropriation for Iraq is enacted. Based on past Iraq supplementals, the supplemental is likely to be structured in a way that …
