Deficits and Projections

The Center's Updated Long-Term Fiscal Deficit & Debt Projections 

The nation faces an unsustainable fiscal future unless the President and Congress change current policies, according to updated projections from the Center. 

While it is imperative that we avoid undercutting ongoing efforts to spur a recovery from what is in many respects the worst recession since the 1930s, it is vital that policymakers begin as soon as possible to take the steps needed to raise revenues and slow spending growth when the economy recovers in order to put the budget on a sustainable path.  They can — and must — do this in a way that also maintains policies that meet crucial national needs and that avoids further increasing poverty and inequality.

 The most important of these steps is system-wide health care reform — to put the federal budget on a
sound long-term trajectory.  Read more

Background

In December 2008 the Center issued new long-term projections showing that deficits and debt will grow to dangerous levels if policy changes are not made.  Our analysis demonstrates the effects that projected demographic changes and increases in health care costs will have on projected expenditures for Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.  It also shows the importance of upcoming tax-policy decisions, particularly whether to make the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent without offsetting their costs.  In addition, the analysis shows that entitlement programs other than the “big three” are not contributors to the long-run fiscal problem.