SNAP Caseload and Spending Declines Accelerated in 2016
Return of Three-Month Time Limit a Factor in Many States
End Notes
[1] Unless otherwise noted, all years presented here are fiscal years. The number of SNAP participants fell by more than 4 million people from December 2012, the peak after the recession, to September 2016, the most recent month for which data are available and the last month of fiscal year 2016.
[2] The drop in April is consistent with CBPP’s estimate that more than 500,000 people would lose benefits in 2016 due to the time limit.
[3] The remainder of this section analyzes the number of SNAP participants as a share of state population in order to more accurately represent SNAP caseload changes in the states where population is growing or shrinking substantially.
[4] There are 53 “states” in SNAP because the District of Columbia, Guam, and the Virgin Islands operate SNAP programs. The District of Columbia is included in the 45 states with declines. SNAP caseloads grew slightly in Guam and the Virgin Islands between 2013 and 2016. (Puerto Rico receives a nutrition block grant and is not included in these figures.)
[5] In the states that re-implemented the time limit in January 2016, many people were cut from SNAP after three months, in April 2016. It appears, however, that the time limit’s effect may have begun earlier in some of the states. It could be that some households started to receive notices and may not have reapplied in the interim. In addition, several states (notably, Florida) re-imposed work requirements in their SNAP Employment and Training program at the same time, and individuals may have had their cases closed as a sanction for lack of compliance with work requirements before three months elapsed.
[6] For more detail on which states re-implemented the time limit in January 2016 see Ed Bolen, et al., “More Than 500,000 Adults Will Lose SNAP Benefits in 2016 as Waivers Expire,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, updated January 21, 2016, https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/more-than-500000-adults-will-lose-snap-benefits-in-2016-as-waivers-expire. Note that though Alaska was on this list, the state later became eligible for (and adopted) a statewide waiver due to rising unemployment. For a current list of state waiver status, see http://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/able-bodied-adults-without-dependents-abawds.
[7] The drop in the number of SNAP participants in 2016 is consistent with these estimates. It will, however, be at least a year before detailed information on the characteristics of SNAP participants in 2016 is available that will allow us to conduct analyses to estimate a more precise figure.
[8] Looking at just one month of SNAP participation data in isolation can be misleading for three reasons: the figures are preliminary and may later be revised, there may be seasonal trends, and often there are distortions from one-time anomalies. In the case of April 2016 data, there are two such anomalies: in Louisiana the number of SNAP participants is lower by about 100,000 individuals because of disaster SNAP benefits in March following flooding; in Kentucky, caseloads dropped substantially (by about 80,000 people) the prior month, reportedly because of issues with a new eligibility system, but rebounded somewhat (by more than 50,000) in April. If we exclude these two states, then SNAP caseloads in the other states fell by 723,000 between March 2016 and April 2016. Because of these anomalies we have not included these two states in the data used for the chart in Figure 2.
[9] Many of the states that implemented the time limit prior to 2016 also saw large one-month drops in participation at that time. For example, Kansas re-imposed the time limit in October 2013, with the first childless adults losing eligibility three months later, in January 2014. The caseload decline expected due to the improving economy — about 3,000 to 4,000 participants per month — suddenly accelerated in January to about 15,000 individuals, then returned to its previous pace.
[10] Most of the states that did not re-implement the time limit in 2016 re-implemented it in 2013, 2014, or 2015. There was a not as large as an effect on overall SNAP participation for this group in any of these years because in each year, only a handful of states implemented, though there have been large effects on participation in individual states.
[11] Steven Carlson, Dorothy Rosenbaum, and Brynne Keith-Jennings, “Who Are the Low-Income Childless Adults Facing the Loss of SNAP in 2016?” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, February 8, 2016, https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/who-are-the-low-income-childless-adults-facing-the-loss-of-snap-in-2016.
[12] For more information on the adults subject to the three month time limit see https://www.cbpp.org/unemployed-adults-without-children-who-need-help-buying-food-only-get-snap-for-three-months.
[13] For more detail on the relationship between the economy and SNAP caseloads, see Dorothy Rosenbaum and Brynne Keith-Jennings, “SNAP Costs and Caseloads Declining,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, March 8, 2016, https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/snap-costs-and-caseloads-declining.
[14] Congressional Budget Office, “The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program,” April 2012.
[15] Kelsey Farson Gray and Karen Cunnyngham, “Trends in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Participation Rates: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2014,” USDA, June 2016, table F.1. The estimated participation rates are not directly comparable between 2007 and 2013 because of revisions to the methodology. The participation rate dropped slightly (to 83 percent) in 2014, the most recent year for which estimates are available.
[16] Both Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics and the CBO have listed SNAP as one of the most effective policies to increase economic growth and employment in a weak economy. CBO has generally ranked transfer payments to individuals, including SNAP, as having one of the top stimulus multipliers as well. See, for example, “Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output in 2013,” February 2014, http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/45122-ARRA.pdf. Zandi has consistently ranked SNAP as having one of the top fiscal stimulus multipliers (see, for example, https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/the-financial-crisis-lessons-for-the-next-one).
[17] See Stacy Dean and Dottie Rosenbaum, “SNAP Benefits Will Be Cut for Nearly All Participants In November 2013,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, August 2, 2013, https://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=3899 and Brynne Keith-Jennings and Dottie Rosenbaum, “SNAP Benefit Boost in 2009 Recovery Act Provided Economic Stimulus and Reduced Hardship,” Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, March 31, 2015, https://www.cbpp.org/research/food-assistance/snap-benefit-boost-in-2009-recovery-act-provided-economic-stimulus-and.
[18] The acceleration in SNAP participation declines occurred despite a larger number of people receiving SNAP benefits as a result of disasters in 2016 than in 2015. There were virtually no new SNAP participants from disaster benefits in 2015 compared to an average of more than 70,000 in an average month in 2016, including 125,000 in September. See Table 2a: http://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/datastatistics/keydata-september-2016_0.pdf.
[19] Congressional Budget Office, “Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: CBO Baseline, January 2017,” January 24, 2017, https://www.cbo.gov/about/products/baseline-projections-selected-programs#20.
[20] Peter Ganong and Jeffrey B. Liebman, “The Decline, Rebound, and Further Rise in SNAP Enrollment: Disentangling Business Cycle Fluctuations and Policy Changes,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 19363, August 2013, http://www.nber.org/papers/w19363.pdf?new_window=1; James P. Ziliak, “Why Are So Many Americans on Food Stamps?” in J. Bartfeld et al., editors, SNAP Matters: How Food Stamps Affect Health and Well Being, Stanford University Press, 2015; Marianne Bitler and Hilary Hoynes, “The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same? The Safety Net and Poverty in the Great Recession,” Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 34, Issue S1, 2016; and Jacob Alex Klerman and Caroline Danielson, “Can the Economy Explain the Explosion in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program? An Assessment of the Local-level Approach,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2016.
[21]As Figure 6 shows, the share of the population with incomes below 130 percent of poverty (i.e., those who likely are eligible for SNAP) fell somewhat faster in 2015 than the share of the population participating in SNAP. As mentioned, the number of SNAP recipients fell by 2 percent in 2015. According to the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS), which is the source of the data for Figure 6, the number of people with annual income below 130 percent poverty fell by about 6.5 percent. According to another Census Survey, the American Community Survey, which has larger sample sizes, the number with annual income below 130 percent poverty fell by less: about 3 percent, between 2014 and 2015. In addition to the explanation explored in the text that SNAP participation rates may still be on the rise and offsetting declines in eligibility, the research documenting a lag in timing for when economic changes are reflected in SNAP participation may be a contributing factor to the somewhat slower drop in SNAP participation in 2015. As discussed, SNAP participation declines accelerated to -3.4 percent in 2016.
[22] USDA calculates the Program Access Index annually for states and the United States as a whole using administrative data on the number of SNAP participants and the number of people with income below 125 percent poverty from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. See USDA, “Calculating the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) Program Access Index: A Step-by-Step Guide for 2015, January 2017,” https://www.fns.usda.gov/sites/default/files/ops/PAI2015.pdf.
[23] These figures are from USDA SNAP Household Characteristics data for fiscal years 2014 and 2015, and are for individuals receiving SNAP in an average month in households with earnings and aged 60 and up. See USDA, “Characteristics of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Households: Fiscal Year 2014,” https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/characteristics-supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-households-fiscal-year-2014 and “Characteristics of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Households: Fiscal Year 2015,” https://www.fns.usda.gov/snap/characteristics-supplemental-nutrition-assistance-households-fiscal-year-2015.
[24] Both the number of people in poverty and the poverty rate fell among elderly individuals and individuals who worked in the last year, according to Census data. For example, see Historical Poverty Tables 3 (for ages 65 and up) and 25, here: http://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-poverty-people.html.
[25] In 2014, according to USDA estimates, 42 percent of eligible elderly individuals and 70 percent of eligible individuals in households with earnings participated on SNAP. Prior to the recession the participation rates for these groups were substantially lower: about 30 percent and 57 percent, respectively. (These figures are not directly comparable because USDA changed the methodology for the participation rate estimates in 2010.)
[26] See, for example, Craig Schneider, “Food Stamp Woes Put $76 Million at Risk,” Atlanta Journal-Constitution, March 30, 2014; Christopher Cousins, “Short-staffing at DHHS blamed for delays in delivering food stamp benefits to Mainers,” Bangor Daily News, June 17, 2014; Nancy Cambria, “Missouri policies blocking access to food stamps, Medicaid and other support for the needy,” St Louis Post-Dispatch, March 23, 2014; Lynn Bonner, “NC Counties Receive Staffing Help to Get Through Food Stamp Backlog,” Charlotte Observer, January 10, 2014; Susan Spence, “Red tape glitches cut food stamp recipients,” Worcester Telegram and Gazette, June 7, 2015; Martha Stoddard, “Nebraska risks losing $17M a year in federal funds if processing of food stamp applications continues to drag,” Omaha World-Herald, April 18, 2015.
[27] For example, Deborah Yetter, “New KY benefits system disrupting aid for many,” Courier-Journal, March 25, 2016, http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2016/03/25/new-ky-benefits-system-disrupting-aid-many/82206656/.
[28] See: http://www.fns.usda.gov/disaster/disaster-assistance.
[29] Low food price inflation the past several years also is a contributing factor. SNAP benefits are based the cost of the “Thrifty Food Plan,” the Agriculture Department’s estimate of a very low-cost, nutritionally adequate diet.
[30] See Bolen et al.