Reports by Paul N. Van de Water
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Rivlin-Domenici Deficit Reduction Plan Is Superior to Bowles-Simpson in Most Areas
November 30, 2010
The Rivlin-Domenici deficit reduction plan, which a commission of the Bipartisan Policy Center unveiled last week, marks a significant improvement over a plan from the co-chairs of President Obama’s fiscal commission — with the exception of health care, in which the Rivlin-Domenici plan actually is more problematic. … -
Changing Budget Process Won’t Reduce Deficit — Only Specific Policy Changes Can Do That
November 18, 2010
A commission funded by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation and the Pew Charitable Trusts has proposed far-reaching changes in the process by which the President and Congress develop and implement the federal budget.[1] The commission argues that the current federal budget process contributes to large deficits and that reducing the deficit … -
“Progressive” Price-Indexing Would Significantly Cut Social Security Benefits for Many Recipients
November 17, 2010
Proposals to tie initial benefit levels for new Social Security beneficiaries to changes in prices rather than average wages are receiving attention as policymakers wrestle with the nation’s fiscal challenges and with options to close Social Security’s long-term financing shortfall. Such proposals, commonly called … -
Bowles-Simpson Plan Commendably Puts Everything on the Table But Has Major Deficiencies Because It Lacks an Appropriate Balance Between Program Cuts and Revenue Increases
November 16, 2010
I. Overview and Summary The November 10 plan from the co-chairs of President Obama’s Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform helps move the budget debate beyond misguided claims that policymakers can tame deficits simply or primarily by eliminating earmarks and “waste, fraud, and abuse.” It also wisely subjects all … -
Ryan Plan Makes Deep Cuts in Social Security
Revised October 21, 2010
A new analysis by Social Security’s chief actuary of several possible changes to the program allows one to calculate the size of the benefit reductions that Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) budget plan would generate. Those cuts are very deep. By 2080, the initial benefit of a medium earner (someone earning $43,000 in today’s terms) … -
New Deficit-Reduction Plan Would Jeopardize Health Reform
October 6, 2010
Bill Galston of the Brookings Institution and Maya MacGuineas of the New America Foundation recently offered a plan to reduce federal deficits and push down debt held by the public to 60 percent of gross domestic product by 2020.[1] The plan has several commendable features. It explicitly recognizes that it would be unrealistic to hold federal … -
Understanding the Social Security Trust Funds
October 5, 2010
Few budgetary concepts generate as much unintended confusion and deliberate misinformation as the Social Security trust funds. Political candidates of both parties have accused their opponents of “raiding” the trust funds.[1] Some writers disparage the trust funds as “funny money” or “IOUs.”[2] All these … -
2010 Medicare Trustees’ Report Shows Benefits of Health Reform and Need for Its Successful Implementation
August 16, 2010
The 2010 annual report of Medicare’s trustees clearly demonstrates that the Affordable Care Act (or ACA, the recently enacted health reform legislation) has greatly improved the financial status of the Medicare program.[1] It also shows that successful implementation of the ACA is an essential first step toward slowing … -
What the 2010 Trustees’ Report Shows about Social Security
August 13, 2010
On August 5, the Social Security Board of Trustees issued the 70th annual report on the program’s financial and actuarial status. [1] The trustees’ report shows some mild deterioration in the program’s short-term outlook — a finding that was widely expected — and a mild improvement in its long-run … -
Social Security Keeps 20 Million Americans Out of Poverty:
August 11, 2010
Social Security benefits play a vital role in reducing poverty. Without Social Security, according to the latest available Census data (for 2008), 19.8 million more Americans would be poor. Although most of those kept out of poverty by Social Security are elderly, nearly a third are under age 65, including 1.1 million children. (See Table 1.) … -
Federal Spending Target of 21 Percent of GDP Not Appropriate Benchmark for Deficit-Reduction Efforts
July 28, 2010
The average level of federal spending over the years since 1970 — about 21 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) — does not provide a reasonable benchmark for the level of spending that will be necessary or appropriate in the future. The Heritage Foundation has proposed that, in developing its recommendations, the … -
Reducing Health Insurance Tax Credits Would Jeopardize Market Reforms and Cost Controls
July 27, 2010
To help reduce projected budget deficits, some have suggested paring back the tax credits that the Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010 provides to help low- and moderate-income families afford health coverage through new state-based health insurance exchanges. Those deficit hawks recommending this course should set their sights … -
Fiscal Commission Should Not Focus On Gross Debt
July 21, 2010
A call by several members of the President’s Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform for the commission to focus on the federal government’s gross debt, rather than debt held by the public, is misguided and could inhibit efforts to address the nation’s long-term fiscal challenges. Debt held by the public … -
The Ryan Budget's Radical Priorities
Revised July 7, 2010
I. Summary The Roadmap for America’s Future, which Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) — the ranking Republican on the House Budget Committee — released in late January, calls for radical policy changes that would result in a massive transfer of resources from the broad majority of Americans to the nation’s … -
Budgetary Concerns Should Not Be An Obstacle to Passing the New Jobs Bill
Revised May 20, 2010
Congress is about to take up a jobs bill that will provide a needed boost to the economic recovery and help people still struggling to find work in a difficult labor market. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Sander Levin today released a summary of … -
Understanding the CMS Actuary’s Report on Health Reform
May 17, 2010
The analysis of the health reform legislation prepared by the chief actuary of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has been widely misrepresented and misunderstood.[1] This brief paper describes some of that report’s key findings and clears up some of the most common misunderstandings. Does the actuary estimate that … -
Employer Responsibility in Health Reform
Revised May 14, 2010
The recent health reform legislation requires larger employers to share the responsibility for assuring that their employees have health coverage. [1] Large firms that employ full-time workers who obtain subsidized health insurance in the new health insurance exchanges — rather than employer-sponsored coverage — will be required … -
How Health Reform Helps Reduce the Deficit
May 10, 2010
The new health reform law will extend coverage to over 30 million uninsured Americans and provide important consumer protections to tens of millions of insured Americans whose coverage may have critical gaps. These coverage expansions will be more than paid for by specific reductions in spending for Medicare, Medicaid, and other federal … -
The Sustainable Growth Rate Formula and Health Reform
April 21, 2010
Some critics of the new health reform law contend that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) cost estimate understates the law’s true cost because the law doesn’t fix Medicare’s flawed sustainable growth rate (SGR) payment formula for physicians. Since Congress is certain to enact a fix, these critics contend, its cost … -
CLASS: A New Voluntary Long-Term Care Insurance Program
April 16, 2010
The new health reform law establishes a federal, voluntary long-term care insurance program, known as Community Living Assistance Services and Supports, or CLASS.[1] This brief paper describes the need for CLASS, explains its benefits and financing, and corrects some misconceptions about the program's effect on the federal budget. Why is … -
Health Reform Will Reduce the Deficit
March 25, 2010
Despite an official estimate by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to the contrary, some critics of the new health reform legislation — such as Rep. Paul Ryan and former CBO director and McCain campaign adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin — charge that it will not reduce federal budget deficits because it relies on budgetary gimmicks … -
Health Reform Package Represents Historic Chance to Expand Coverage, Improve Insurance Markets, Slow Cost Growth, and Reduce Deficits
March 19, 2010
The health reform legislation now before Congress represents a historic opportunity to make significant progress in three critical areas: expanding the availability and affordability of health coverage, instituting much-needed improvements to the flawed health insurance marketplace, and taking steps to slow the relentless growth in health … -
Using Reconciliation Process to Enact Health Reform Would Be Fully Consistent With Past Practice
Updated March 3, 2010
The President and Democratic congressional leaders have determined that the best way to enact comprehensive health reform in the face of solid Republican opposition is to use the congressional reconciliation process to make a limited number of changes to the health reform bill that the Senate passed in December.[1] Despite charges by congressional Republicans and … -
Health Reform Essential for Reducing Deficit and Slowing Health Care Costs
February 3, 2010
Because rising health care costs represent the single largest cause of the federal government’s long-term budget problems, fundamental health reform must be part of any budget solution.[1] President Obama observed at a recent town hall meeting: “If you are serious about reducing our deficit and debt you cannot accomplish it without reforming … -
Changes to Excise Tax on High-Cost Health Plans Address Criticisms, Retain Long-Term Benefits
January 26, 2010
Under one scenario for Congress to enact health reform legislation, the House would pass the Senate health bill, and the House and Senate would both pass a budget reconciliation bill that includes changes to the health bill that House and Senate leaders have negotiated. One apparent obstacle to this course of action is continued objection by some House members to …
