Reports by Richard Kogan
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The Long-Term Fiscal Outlook Is Bleak
December 16, 2008
This report updates the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities’ projections of federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt through 2050. These projections — like the projections the Center issued in January 2007 and the projections by other institutions such as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Government Accountability … -
How Projected Surpluses Became Deficits
September 12, 2008
The federal budget is projected to run a $546 billion deficit in 2009, compared with the $710 billion surplus that budget experts projected for 2009 back when President Bush took office nearly eight years ago. This $1.3 trillion deterioration in the nation’s fiscal finances for 2009 can be seen by comparing estimates that the … -
How Robust Was the 2001-2007 Economic Expansion?
Updated August 29, 2008
Proponents of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts often argue that the economic and employment growth of the past several years establishes that these tax cuts “worked” and had strong beneficial effects. More recently, some have also argued that, with growth slowing, new tax cuts are needed and would reinvigorate the economy. It now appears likely that the economic expansion that … -
A Balanced Approach to Restoring Fiscal Responsibility
July 9, 2008
In a recent paper, “Taking Back Our Fiscal Future,” a group of policy analysts from several Washington think tanks proposed a radical change in budget procedures related to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid as a way to address budget deficits projected for future decades. They urged Congress to establish 30-year budgets, or caps, for these programs. The White House would conduct a review every five years. If it projected that expenditures would exceed the caps, the programs would face automatic cuts or related tax increases.
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The Congressional Budget Plan
May 22, 2008
On May 20, House and Senate negotiators reached agreement on a congressional budget plan for fiscal year 2009 (S.Con.Res. 70), which the House and Senate plan to vote on by the end of this week. This paper provides a brief analysis of the plan and how it compares with the budget President Bush submitted earlier this year. Current … -
Federal Spending, 2001-2008: Defense Is a Rapidly Growing Share of the Budget, While Domestic Appropriations Have Shrunk
Revised March 6, 2008
Both last year and this year, President Bush called for large funding increases for defense and related programs while demanding considerable restraint in domestic appropriations. And this year, like last year, he has threatened to veto appropriations bills if Congress does not adhere to his tight domestic levels. Some may think … -
Long-Term Social Security Shortfall Smaller Than Cost of Extending Tax Cuts for Top 1 Percent
March 31, 2008
The Social Security trustees’ report issued this week estimates that Social Security faces a total shortfall over the next 75 years of 0.56 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is slightly less than the estimated cost over that same period of extending the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts just for the top 1 percent of … -
The President's Budget and the Medicare “Trigger”
Revised February 15, 2008
Today, the President submitted legislation to Congress that would ostensibly keep general revenues from covering more than 45 percent of overall Medicare costs in each year through at least 2013. Congress is supposed to consider the President’s proposal or a comparable proposal to avoid exceeding the 45-percent limit. Some have … -
The Dubious Priorities of the President's FY 2009 Budget
Revised February 7, 2008
The President’s budget would provide more tax cuts heavily skewed to the most well-off while cutting vital services for low- and moderate-income Americans, generating large deficits, and increasing the strain on states already confronting budget problems as a result of the economic downturn. The budget …
