Reports by Richard Kogan
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Reinstatement of Pay-As-You-Go is a Welcome Step Toward Fiscal Responsibility
December 20, 2006
House and Senate Democratic leaders have pledged to reinstate the “Pay-As-You-Go” rule early in the 110th Congress. Such a rule, which was in effect in the 1990s, helps to enforce fiscal discipline by requiring that any tax cut or increase in entitlement spending be offset by an increase in other taxes or reduction in other entitlement … -
From Surplus to Deficit
December 13, 2006
The adjournment of the 109th Congress provides an opportunity for a broad look at the budget legislation enacted since a new Administration and Congress took office at the start of 2001. This review finds that the national debt at the end of fiscal year 2006 (which ended September 30) was nearly twice as large as it would have been if Congress had left … -
Appropriations for 2006
Revised October 13, 2006
Congress completed action on the regular appropriations bills for fiscal year 2006 on December 21, 2005, after imposing a one-percent across-the-board cut on all funding except that for veterans or emergencies. The one-percent cut is in addition to the specific reductions or increases otherwise provided by the 2006 bills.… -
Deficit Announcement Masks Bigger Story
October 11, 2006
On Wednesday, October 11, the Treasury announced the final deficit figure for fiscal 2006. That figure is $248 billion. This figure is $42 billion lower than the $290 billion deficit that the Office of Management and Budget estimated on July 11, which itself was lower than the deficit estimates that OMB and CBO issued last winter.[1] … -
CBO Analysis Finds Increased Revenues Would Offset Increased Entitlement Costs under Senate Immigration Bill
September 15, 2006
The immigration bill passed by the U.S. Senate would affect the federal budget by increasing both the number of legal immigrants qualifying for federal entitlement programs and the number of immigrants filing tax returns and paying income and payroll taxes. On August 18, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issued a new … -
House Proposal to Reform Earmarks Employs Double Standard, Largely Exempting Earmarks Packaged as Special Interest Tax Breaks
September 14, 2006
The House is about to consider a change in its rules that would require any committee that includes an “earmark” in legislation to report the name of the Member who sponsored the earmark.[1] One aspect of this proposal jumps out: while earmarked funding would be subject to this rule, earmarked special-interest tax breaks would be exempt from the rule, except for tax breaks that … -
Even With New Budget Projections, Budget Deterioration from 2000-2006 Will Be the Largest 6-Year Deterioration in Half a Century
Revised August 17, 2006
The Congressional Budget Office has issued new estimates that show that the budget deficit will be 2.0 percent of the Gross Domestic Product in 2006, down from the 2.8 percent of GDP that CBO had estimated (under Administration policies) earlier this year. Over the last month, the Administration has celebrated the reduction in … -
Don't Pop the Corks: CBO Outlook for the Federal Budget Is Still Bleak
August 17, 2006
The Congressional Budget Office today released new budget projections showing a deficit of $260 billion for fiscal year 2006, which will end on September 30.[1] Although such a deficit would be $30 billion lower than the Office of Management and Budget estimated on July 11, and just over $100 billion less than CBO projected last March (excluding the … -
Budget Process Bill Would Result In Deep Cuts In Medicare and Medicaid
Revised August 9, 2006
The Senate Budget Committee has approved a bill (S. 3521) that would radically alter federal budget procedures and could lead to deep cuts over time in the vast majority of domestic programs, including Medicaid, Medicare, and SCHIP. While the odds are slim that the legislation will be considered by the full Senate this year, the … -
Gregg Bill Would Make Far-Reaching Changes In Budget Rules
Revised August 9, 2006
Executive Summary Sweeping legislation to radically alter federal budget procedures, designed by Senate Budget Committee chairman Judd Gregg and endorsed by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, was adopted by the Budget Committee on June 20. The bill may be brought to the Senate floor this summer (either as a single piece of … -
Combined Effect of Senate Proposals Would Be To Finance Near-Repeal of the Estate Tax with Cuts in Medicare, Veterans Benefits, School Lunches, and Other Programs
August 9, 2006
At the urging of Senate Republican leader Bill Frist, the Senate last week considered a House-passed proposal to repeal most but not all of the estate tax. The measure contains no “offsets”; its large cost would be financed through higher deficits. In June, the Senate Budget Committee approved a far-reaching bill to make major changes in … -
Budget Process Bill Threatens Veterans’ Programs
August 4, 2006
The Senate Budget Committee has approved a bill (S. 3521) that would radically alter federal budget procedures and could lead to deep cuts over time in the vast majority of domestic programs, including veterans’ programs. While the odds are slim that the legislation will be considered by the full Senate this year, the bill is nevertheless important because it appears to reflect an … -
Claim That Tax Cuts "Pay For Themselves" Is Too Good To Be True
Revised July 26, 2006
In recent statements, the President, the Vice President, and key Congressional leaders have asserted that the increase in revenues in 2005 and the increase now projected for 2006 prove that tax cuts “pay for themselves.” In other words, the economy expands so much as a result of tax cuts that it produces the same level of revenue as it would have … -
The Recent Upturn in Revenues and OMB's Mid-Session Review
Revised July 14, 2006
Summary The Mid-Session Review issued on July 11 by the White House Office of Management and Budget projects that fiscal year 2006 revenues will be significantly above — and the 2006 deficit significantly below — the levels forecast in the President’s budget in February. This year’s strong … -
Senate “Line-Item Veto” Proposal Invites Abuse by Executive Branch
July 12, 2006
The Senate Budget Committee recently approved the Legislative Line Item Veto Act of 2006, a variation of a proposal the Bush Administration submitted earlier this year. The Budget Committee adopted this measure as part of a larger budget-process bill that it passed on June 20. [1] The Senate is expected to consider the line-item veto measure later this session, most likely as a stand-alone … -
Discretionary Caps in Gregg Bill Would Lead To Overly Deep Cuts
Revised July 7, 2006
Senate Budget Committee Chairman Judd Gregg (R-NH) has introduced legislation (S. 3521) that would make a number of far-reaching changes in the federal budget process. The Senate Budget Committee is scheduled to mark up that legislation on June 20. Included in the legislation are provisions that would establish … -
Combined Effect of Bills Moving in the Senate Would Be To Finance Near-Repeal of the Estate Tax With Cuts in Medicare, Veterans Benefits, School Lunches, and Other Programs
June 26, 2006
At the urging of Senate Republican leader Bill Frist, the House of Representatives last week approved a measure designed by House Ways and Means Committee chairman Bill Thomas to repeal most but not all of the estate tax. The measure contains no “offsets”; its large cost would be financed through higher deficits.… -
House "Line-Item Veto" Proposal Invites Abuse By Executive Branch
June 19, 2006
The House Budget Committee has approved the Legislative Line Item Veto Act of 2006, a variation of a proposal that the Bush Administration submitted earlier this year.[1] The House floor is expected to consider this legislation during the week of June 18, while the Senate Budget Committee is scheduled to consider a different … -
Administration's Argument Against Pay-As-You-Go For Tax Cuts Does Not Withstand Scrutiny
June 13, 2006
Bipartisan budget watchdog groups such as the Concord Coalition and the Committee for Economic Development have called for reinstatement of the Pay-As-You-Go rules, which helped move the budget from deficits to surpluses in the 1990s. Eminent figures such as former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan and David Walker, head of the … -
A "Mere" $300 Billion: Should a $300 Billion Deficit Be Considered a Victory?
Revised June 5, 2006
On May 4, the Congressional Budget Office revised its estimate of the deficit for the current fiscal year (2006) to “significantly less than $350 billion, perhaps as low as $300 billion, assuming enactment of the pending supplemental appropriations and tax reconciliation legislation.”[1] On May 9, Goldman Sachs … -
The House-Passed Budget Plan
Revised May 22, 2006
In the early morning of May 18, the House passed a budget plan (or “budget resolution”) for fiscal year 2007. In a separate vote later that day, the Housed “deemed” that the Congress has given final approval to the plan. As a result of this “deemer,” the House budget plan is now … -
Will The Administration Claim the Cost of Fixing Social Security Rose $700 Billion Because Congress Did Not Act Last Year?
Revised May 1, 2006
President Bush and other Administration officials often claim that delaying action on Social Security by “...just one year adds $600 billion [or $700 billion] to the cost of fixing Social Security.”[1] Such claims may be repeated on May 1 when the Social Security Trustees release their annual report on the program’s finances. Such claims, however, are not accurate. The figures used in … -
Trustees’ Report Focuses Attention On Misguided Medicare “45-Percent Trigger”
Revised May 1, 2006
The Social Security and Medicare Trustees report issued May 1 includes an estimate that the portion of Medicare funding that comes from general revenues will exceed 45 percent in 2012. This estimate is likely to be cited by some as an indication of Medicare’s growing problems, with the implication being that Medicare’s … -
Proposed Line-Item Veto Legislation Would Invite Abuse by Executive Branch
Revised April 21, 2006
The Administration has proposed the Legislative Line Item Veto Act of 2006, which was recently introduced in Congress by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) as S. 2381 and by Representative Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as H.R. 4890.[1] Both the House and the Senate are expected to consider the proposal in coming months. The … -
Changing The Budget Rules
April 18, 2006
In the budget it presented to Congress last month, the Bush Administration proposed a series of changes in the rules under which Congress considers and approves the federal budget.[1] The principal Administration proposals have a common theme: the new rules would allow unlimited tax cuts while imposing tight limits on … -
The Republican Study Committee Budget Plan
April 6, 2006
The Republican Study Committee, a group of very conservative members of the House of Representatives, issued a budget plan on March 8, 2006. That plan may be offered as an amendment later this week to the congressional budget resolution reported by the House Budget Committee. The … -
Five-Year Discretionary Caps Would Be Unwise at This Time
March 27, 2006
The President has again proposed enactment of binding caps for each of the next five years on overall levels of funding and expenditures for discretionary programs (i.e., programs that are non-entitlements). Under the proposal, the cap for each fiscal year through 2011 would be set at the overall levels for discretionary … -
Proposed Cap Would Require Deep Cuts In Entitlement Programs
March 16, 2006
The Republican Study Committee, a group of conservative members of the House of Representatives, has proposed to establish an “entitlement cap” that limits total expenditures for entitlement programs other than Social Security and requires projected expenditures for such programs to be cut $1.8 trillion over the next … -
"Joint Budget Resolution" Could Lead to Gridlock on Appropriations and Shift Power to the Executive Branch
March 16, 2006
Under the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, budget resolutions are “concurrent resolutions” that do not go to the President for his signature or veto and are not laws. Also under current rules, if a budget resolution has not been approved by May 15, appropriations bills may be brought to the House floor so that … -
President and Senate Budget Committee Embrace Misguided “45-Percent Trigger”
March 13, 2006
Both the President and the Senate Budget Committee have embraced the notion that increases in the share of Medicare expenditures that are funded by general revenues are problematic and should be limited. The President’s fiscal year 2007 budget calls for Medicare to be subject to automatic cuts in any year in which more than … -
The Hidden Cuts in Domestic Appropriations
February 9, 2006
Under the Administration’s budget, funding for domestic discretionary programs would be cut by $183 billion over the next five years, relative to OMB’s own budget baseline (i.e., relative to the 2006 funding levels adjusted for inflation). By 2011, the last year covered by the budget, funding for … -
Out in the Cold: How Much LIHEAP Funding Will Be Needed to Protect Beneficiaries from Rising Energy Prices?
Revised January 18, 2006
Last year, Congress provided nearly $2.2 billion for the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). LIHEAP helps very poor households, including many elderly, pay their home heating (and cooling) bills. Most of the assistance prevents heat from being turned off in northern states in the dead of winter, but some also … -
Drop in Deficit in 2005 Does Not Mean Tax Cuts Are Spurring Economic and Revenue Growth; New IRS Data Confirm Tax Cuts Lose Revenue
Revised January 6, 2006
According to final Treasury Department figures, the deficit for fiscal year 2005 was $319 billion, down significantly both from last year’s level and from projections made at the beginning of this year. This progress is due to an increase in tax collections from last year (and from what had been projected earlier this year). Some are using this fact to argue that the tax cuts … -
Why the Application of the Expected Across-the-Board Appropriations Cut to Defense Is Likely To Be Purely Cosmetic
Revised January 6, 2006
Application of the one percent across-the-board appropriations cut to the Defense Department enacted in December is likely to be illusory. Defense funds that are reduced through the across-the-board cut now are likely to be fully restored this spring, when a supplemental appropriation for Iraq is enacted. Based on past Iraq supplementals, the supplemental is likely to be structured in a way that … -
What Do the Across the Board Cuts Mean for Domestic Appropriations
Revised January 6, 2006
To comply with budget targets it set last April, Congress cut fiscal year 2006 funding for domestic programs by $9 billion, or 2.3 percent on average, below the 2005 level adjusted for inflation.[1] In addition to the specific cuts or increases contained in the 2006 appropriations bills, which netted to a cut of $9 billion, …
