Reports by James R. Horney
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House-Passed and Senate Health Bills Reduce Deficit, Slow Health Care Costs, and Include Realistic Medicare Savings
December 4, 2009
Health reform legislation that has passed the House in one form and is before the Senate in another is facing a series of attacks that, taken together, suggest the legislation would do little to control health care costs and would increase budget deficits. Many of these charges are exaggerated or simply … -
CBPP’s Updated Long-Term Fiscal Deficit and Debt Projections
September 30, 2009
For a number of years, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) has projected the long-term path of federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt if current policies remain unchanged. These projections have shown that deficits and debt will grow in coming decades to unprecedented levels that will not only … -
Correcting Five Myths About the Stimulus Bill
Updated September 23, 2009
Some critics of the economic recovery law (or “stimulus” bill) that President Obama and Congress enacted early this year continue to mischaracterize how it was supposed to work and what it was supposed to do. For instance, some critics complain that, because unemployment has risen in recent months, the law is not working. Others claim … -
New OMB and CBO Reports Show Continuing Current Policies Would Produce Large Deficits
August 27, 2009
On August 25, both the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released updated budget projections. Some observers, comparing OMB’s estimate of the deficit over the next ten years under the President’s proposed policies ($9.1 trillion) to CBO’s “baseline” estimate of the deficit under … -
Statement: James R. Horney, Director of Federal Fiscal Policy, on the Deficit Reports by the Office of Management and Budget and the Congressional Budget Office
August 25, 2009
Today’s budget reports provide no evidence that federal budget policies over the last year have failed or that a drastic new direction in short-term fiscal policy is needed. While they also provide little new information about the nation’s longer-run budget path, the reports … -
Five Keys to Understanding New 2009 Deficit Estimates
August 21, 2009
Next week, the President’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) will update their economic and budget projections for fiscal year 2009, which ends on September 30, and the next ten fiscal years.[1] Some analysts and pundits will try to use the new projections to support their arguments … -
Ryan Substitute for Statutory Pay-As-You-Go
July 22, 2009
The House of Representatives is today considering legislation (H.R. 2920, as amended by a substitute proposed by Majority Leader Steny Hoyer) that would reinstate a statutory Pay-As-You-Go rule similar to the rule that helped produce the first federal budget surpluses in decades in fiscal years 1998 through 2001. Under the … -
Joint Statement: Robert Greenstein and James Horney on the President’s “Pay As You Go” Budget Proposal
June 10, 2009
President Obama’s proposal to require policymakers to fully pay for all new entitlement increases and tax cuts, rather than deficit-finance them, is an important first step to restore fiscal responsibility. Critics charge that the pay-as-you-go, or PAYGO, proposal is riddled with … -
A Brief Analysis of the Congressional Budget Plan
May 4, 2009
The budget resolution Congress adopted last week for fiscal year 2010[1] largely reflects the proposals in the preliminary budget President Obama submitted to Congress in February. Under the budget resolution: Deficits will be very high by historical standards in the next several years … -
An Analysis of the House and Senate Budget Plans
April 1, 2009
The congressional budget resolutions that the House and Senate are considering this week are essentially consistent with the budget blueprint that President Obama submitted to the Congress in February.[1] The President’s budget and the House and Senate plans (which their … -
Limiting Itemized Deductions for Upper-Income Taxpayers Would Have Little Effect on Small Business, Charities, Housing
March 12, 2009
Despite persistent claims to the contrary, the President’s proposal to cap the value of itemized deductions at 28 percent would have only small effects on small business, charitable giving, and homeownership. That’s because the proposal, which would save $318 billion over the next ten years to help finance health care reform, would affect only those tax … -
Very Few Small Business Owners Would Face Tax Increases Under President's Budget
February 28, 2009
Some critics of the President’s budget charge that his proposals to roll back tax breaks for taxpayers with incomes over $250,000 would harm small businesses. In fact, only 8.9 percent of people with any small business income have incomes of over $250,000 and, thus, would even potentially be affected by these provisions. (See … -
Senate Changes Make Recovery Package Less Effective
February 10, 2009
The Senate today passed a version of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (H.R. 1) that makes a number of changes in the House-passed bill. Contrary to their proponents' claim, these changes — in Senate committees and on the floor last week, as well as by a group of Senators led by Ben Nelson and Susan Collins — have reduced … -
House, Senate Recovery Bills Allot Vast Share of Benefits During Downturn, New Official Estimates Show
February 3, 2009
Despite charges to the contrary, the House-passed economic recovery package and the one that the Senate plans to consider this week each would provide a timely boost to the struggling economy. Charges that much of each bill’s new spending and tax cuts would take place after the economy has largely recovered are inaccurate. In … -
Big Misconceptions about Small Businesses and Taxes
Updated February 2, 2009
Supporters of various tax benefits for high-income households often claim that failure to maintain them would have an undue effect on many small businesses. But even assuming a broad definition of “small business,” such claims are often exaggerated or false. This paper examines three such claims. First, critics …
