- a decline of 3.9 percentage points in the proportion of lower-income
children living with a single mother (compared to a 1.4 percentage-point
decline in the original study),
- an increase of 2.2 percentage points in the proportion of lower-income
children living with married parents (compared to no change in the original
study),
- an increase of 1.2 percentage points in the proportion of lower-income
children living with a cohabiting mother (the same result as in the original
study), and
- no change in the proportion of higher-income children living with married
parents (compared to a 1.4 percentage-point decline in the original study).
In general, using the new methodology, the trend away from single-mother-only
families seems to be associated primarily with lower-income families. The trend away
from single mothers was evident among all racial groups, but primarily confined to each
group's lower-income population. Among blacks and Hispanics, there also was a
significant increase between 1995 and 2000 in the percentage of children living with
married parents — either natural, adoptive, or step. Only in the black community were there
any significant changes in the living arrangements of children among higher-income
families.
The reason why the new methodology produces different results is the growth in
income between 1995 and 2000. The proportion of children living below 200 percent of
the poverty line fell from 44 percent to 39 percent during this period. In the original study,
therefore, children in the 40th through 44th percentiles by income were included in the lower-income category in
1995 but were in the higher-income category in 2000. Since children living in
higher-income families are less likely to live with single mothers than are lower-income
children, the shift of relatively high-income children out of the lower-income category
effectively increased the percentage of lower-income children living with single mothers, partially obscuring the trend
away from
single mothers in this income group. This supplementary analysis, by using a fixed
percentage of children rather than a fixed level of income as the dividing line between
income categories, avoids this flaw.
Table 2
Comparison of the Change in Child Living Arrangements from 1995 to 2000 by
Income,
Using 200 Percent of the Poverty Level and Fixed Percentage Analysis
|
Fixed Percentage |
200 % of Poverty Level |
| Overall |
1995 |
2000 |
1995 - 2000 |
1995 |
2000 |
1995 - 2000 |
| Married Parents |
69.5% |
70.1% |
0.6% |
69.5% |
70.1% |
0.6% |
| Single Mother |
9.9% |
18.4% |
-1.5% |
19.9% |
18.4% |
-1.5% |
| Cohabiting Mother |
2.6% |
3.0% |
0.4% |
2.6% |
3.0% |
0.4% |
| Lower Income |
Bottom 39% (Fixed) |
Below 200% of Poverty |
| Married Parents |
48.3% |
50.5% |
2.2% |
50.8% |
50.4% |
0.4% |
| Single Mother |
36.6% |
32.7% |
-3.9% |
34.2% |
32.8% |
-1.4% |
| Cohabiting Mother |
4.8% |
6.0% |
1.2% |
4.8% |
6.0% |
1.2% |
| Higher Income |
Top 61% (Fixed) |
Above 200% of Poverty |
| Married Parents |
83.8% |
83.7% |
-0.1% |
85.0% |
83.6% |
-1.4% |
| Single Mother |
9.5% |
9.5% |
0.0% |
9.0% |
9.5% |
0.5% |
| Cohabiting Mother |
1.2% |
1.1% |
-0.1% |
0.9% |
1.1% |
0.2% |
|
| Bold type indicates statistical significance at the 90 percent confidence level. |
Possible explanations for the shift away from single-mother families include the
decline in teen birth rates, changing attitudes toward marriage, a strong economy, and
policy changes such as welfare reform and the strengthening of the child support
enforcement program. However, it is difficult to weigh these factors or to judge the impact
of changing living arrangements upon children's well-being.
Methodology(5)
There are at least two ways to compare living arrangements across income. (See
Table 1). The first is to compare populations below and above a given income level over
time. The original paper uses this method: "lower-income" children are defined as those in
families with incomes below 200 percent of the poverty line and "higher-income" children
as those above 200 percent of the poverty line. While the relative sizes of the two groups will change over time
to reflect the changing number of families above and below the income threshold, the
threshold itself remains constant. Using this approach, 44 percent of all children were
below 200 percent of poverty in 1995 compared to 39 percent in 2000.
Table 3
Living Arrangements of All Children,
Based on a Fixed Percentage of Children Each Year
|
1985 |
1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
1985 - 1990 |
1995 - 2000 |
| Overall |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Married Parents |
74.3% |
73.1% |
69.5% |
70.1% |
-1.2% |
0.6% |
| Single Mother |
18.8% |
18.9% |
19.9% |
18.4% |
0.1% |
-1.5% |
| Cohabiting Mother |
1.5% |
1.9% |
2.6% |
3.0% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Lower Income (Poorest 39 Percent) |
|
|
|
|
| Married Parents |
55.1% |
52.9% |
48.3% |
50.5% |
-2.2% |
2.2% |
| Single Mother |
35.0% |
35.3% |
36.6% |
32.7% |
0.3% |
-3.9% |
| Cohabiting Mother |
3.0% |
3.7% |
4.8% |
6.0% |
0.7% |
1.2% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Higher Income (Richest 61 Percent) |
|
|
|
|
| Married Parents |
87.1% |
86.4% |
83.8% |
83.7% |
-0.7% |
-0.1% |
| Single Mother |
8.6% |
8.5% |
9.5% |
9.5% |
-0.1% |
0.0% |
| Cohabiting Mother |
0.5% |
0.7% |
1.2% |
1.1% |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
|
| Bold type indicates statistical significance at the 90 percent confidence level. |
Another way to compare living arrangements across income is to examine an
identical percentage of children arranged by income across time. This is the method used
here. For comparability to the earlier study, "lower income" is defined across all years as
the percentage of children living below 200 percent of the poverty line in 2000, or the
bottom 39 percent of children. Similarly, "higher income" is defined across all years as the
percentage of children living above 200 percent of the poverty line in 2000, or the top 61
percent of children. With this method, the income threshold dividing the two groups
changes over time, while the relative sizes of the groups remain constant.
Applying the fixed-percentage method to the data from the original study, the first
two columns of Table 2 compare the bottom 39 percent and the top 61 percent of children
overall in 2000 to identical percentages of children in 1995. Among children in the bottom
39 percent, those living with married parents rose by 2.2 percentage points, those with
single mothers fell by 3.9 percentage points, and those with cohabiting mothers rose by
1.2 percentage points. The top 61 percent of children did not exhibit any statistically
significant changes in living arrangements during this period.
These results differ from those reported in the original study, which found that
between 1995 and 2000, the proportion of lower-income children living with single mothers
declined 1.4 percentage points and the proportion of higher-income children living with
married parents decreased 1.4 percentage points.
Despite the difference in results between the two studies, both are both
mathematically accurate; the apparent discrepancy arises from the effects in the original
study of the rise in incomes in the late 1990s. Between 1995 and 2000, the proportion of
children living below 200 percent of the poverty line fell from 44 percent to 39 percent (See
Table 1). As a result, in the original study, children in the 39th through 44th percentiles by
income were included in the lower-income category in 1995 but were in the higher-income
category for 2000.
Since children living in higher-income families are less likely to live with single
mothers than are lower-income children, the shift of the relatively high-income children out
of the lower-income category in 2000 effectively increased the percentage of lower-income
children living with single mothers, partially obscuring the trend away from single mothers in
this income group. This supplementary analysis, in contrast, uses a fixed percentage of
children rather than a fixed level of income as the dividing line between income categories,
so the rise in incomes during the late 1990s does not affect its results.
Changes in Living Arrangements by Race and Income
White, Non-Hispanic Children
Among white children overall, shifts in living arrangements between 1995 and 2000
were statistically insignificant. However, among lower-income white children, there were
several statistically significant changes over this period. About 27 percent of white
children lived below 200 percent of the poverty line in 2000. Comparing the poorest 27
percent of white children in 1995 and 2000, the proportion of white children living with
single mothers decreased by 2.9 percentage points over this period, while the proportion
living with cohabiting mothers increased by 1.7 percentage points. Both of these changes
were significant. These trends contrast to a 2.9 percentage-point decrease
in the
proportion of lower-income white children living with married parents in the earlier 1985 - 1990 period. The living arrangements of white children in the top 73 percent of incomes
did not change significantly between 1995 and 2000.
Black, Non-Hispanic Children
In contrast to white children, in recent years black children experienced statistically
significant changes in living arrangements overall as well as by income subgroups. The
proportion of black children overall who lived with married parents increased by 4.1
percentage points between 1995 and 2000; the proportion living with single mothers
decreased by 4.0 percentage points; and the proportion living with cohabiting mothers
increased by 1.3 percentage points.
Some 61 percent of black children lived below 200 percent of the poverty line in
2000. Between 1995 and 2000, the proportion of children in this low-income group living
with married parents rose by 3.2 percentage points; the proportion living with single
mothers fell by 4.7 percentage points; and the proportion living with cohabiting mothers
rose by 2.2 percentage points.
Among the 39 percent of black children in the upper-income group, there was a
sizable — although statistically insignificant
— decline in the proportion living with single
mothers and a statistically significant increase of 5.2 percentage points in the proportion living with
married parents. Black children were the only racial/ethnic group in which children in the
higher-income subgroup were more likely to live with married parents in 2000 than in 1995.
(It should be noted, however, that the proportion of higher-income black children living with
married parents in 1995 was much lower than the proportion among other subgroups.)
|
WHY DOES THE NEW METHODOLOGY GET DIFFERENT
AND MORE
INDICATIVE RESULTS?
AN ILLUSTRATIVE PROOF
To demonstrate how the two sets of results are both
mathematically accurate and to illustrate why the fixed percentage analysis is
more illuminating for the purposes of this study, consider a group of 100
children, distributed among various living arrangements as in Table A. Assume
that 45 percent of the children lived below 200 percent of poverty in 1995,
and, because of increasing incomes, 40 percent lived below 200 percent of the
poverty line in 2000.
Table A:
Hypothetical Percentage of
Children Living with Married
Parents,
Ratio of Income to Poverty Threshold
| |
1995 |
2000 |
| Poorest 40% of all children |
20% |
23% |
| 40% to 45% (next 5%) |
40% |
41% |
| Richest 55% of all children |
60% |
61% |
| Overall |
43.0% |
45.8% |
Analyzing the changes in the living
arrangements of children in this example by poverty level and again by
comparing a fixed percentage of low-income children yields different results.
Table B, which is derived from Table A, shows that comparing living
arrangements from 1995 to 2000 using 200 percent of poverty as the threshold
between lower- and higher-income children yields a 0.8 percentage-point
increase in the number of lower-income children living with married parents,
and a 0.7 percentage-point decrease in the number of higher-income children
living with married parents. On the other hand, fixing the threshold between
lower- and higher-income children at the bottom 40 percent and top 60 percent
of incomes results in a 3.0 percentage-point increase in the number of
lower-income children living with married parents, and a 1.0 percentage-point
increase in the number of higher-income children living with married parents.
This example shows that the analysis by poverty level produces misleading
results and does not reflect the actual situation depicted in Table A.
Table B:
Hypothetical Percentage of Children Living with Married
Parents,
by Income Under Alternative Methodologies
| |
1995 |
2000 |
Change |
| Overall |
43.0% |
45.8% |
1.8% |
| Below 200% of Poverty |
22.2% |
23.0% |
0.8% |
| Above 200% of Poverty |
60.0% |
59.3% |
-0.7% |
| Poorest 40% of Children |
20.0% |
23.0% |
3.0% |
| Richest 60% of Children |
58.3% |
59.3% |
1.0% |
The income increase built into this example drives the difference between
the two sets of results. Using poverty level analysis rather than fixed
percentage analysis, if 45 percent of children lived below 200 percent of
poverty in 1995 and 40 percent did in 2000, then, all other things remaining
the same, the higher-income group for 2000 would include an additional five
percent of children who would have been included in the lower-income group
using the 1995 threshold. In 1995, those five percent of children were better
off than the rest of the lower-income group and also were the most likely of
those children to live with married parents, effectively raising the
percentage of lower-income children living with married parents in that year.
In 2000, because of income gains, those five percent of children fall just
above 200 percent of poverty and shift into the higher-income group. Within
this group, they are the poorest children and the least likely to live with
married parents, thus lowering the percentage of higher-income children living
with married parents in 2000. In sum, these results reflect shifts in both
income and living arrangements; the income shifts partially mask the changes
in living arrangements.
This example, though artificially simple, shows how the results of
analyzing child living arrangements can differ depending on the methodology
used for sorting children into lower- and higher-income groups and that the
fixed percentage method is more indicative of what actually occurred.
|
Table 4
Living Arrangements of White Non-Hispanic Children,
Based on a Fixed Percentage of Children Each Year
|
1985 |
1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
1985 - 1990 |
1995 - 2000 |
| Overall |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Married Parents |
81.9% |
81.1% |
78.5% |
78.2% |
-0.8% |
-0.3% |
| Single Mother |
12.4% |
12.4% |
12.8% |
12.0% |
0.0% |
-0.8% |
| Cohabiting Mother |
1.4% |
1.7% |
2.6% |
2.8% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
| Lower Income (Bottom 27 Percent) |
|
|
|
|
| Married Parents |
64.7% |
61.8% |
57.8% |
57.6% |
-2.9% |
-0.2% |
| Single Mother |
26.0% |
26.9% |
27.5% |
24.6% |
0.9% |
-2.9% |
| Cohabiting Mother |
3.7% |
4.6% |
6.2% |
7.9% |
0.9% |
1.7% |
| Higher Income (Top 73 Percent) |
|
|
|
|
| Married Parents |
88.6% |
88.6% |
86.7% |
86.6% |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
| Single Mother |
7.3% |
7.0% |
7.4% |
7.6% |
-0.3% |
0.2% |
| Cohabiting Mother |
0.5% |
0.7% |
1.2% |
1.0% |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
| Bold type indicates statistical significance at the 90 percent confidence level. |
Hispanic Children
Like black children, Hispanic children displayed significant changes between 1995
and 2000 both overall and by income group. Overall, the percentage of Hispanic children
living with single mothers fell by a statistically significant 3.3 percentage points from 1995
to 2000. Some 64 percent of Hispanic children fell below 200 percent of the poverty line in
2000; within this group, the proportion living with married parents increased by 3.9
percentage points between 1995 and 2000, while the proportion living with single mothers
decreased by 5.0 percentage points. There was no change in the percentage living with
cohabiting mothers. Among the top 36 percent of Hispanic children, there were no
significant changes in living arrangements.
Overall Trends
When fixed percentages are used to compare lower- and higher-income children,
the trend away from children living in households with only single mothers seems to be
associated primarily with lower-income families. Some 390,000 fewer lower-income
children lived in single-mother-only families in 2000 than in 1995. There was a statistically
significant decrease in the proportion of lower-income children in each of the three major
racial subgroups living with single mothers during this period. Significantly larger
percentages of lower-income minority children lived with married parents, including about 290,000 Hispanic children and
220,000 black children.
Table 5
Living Arrangements of Black Non-Hispanic Children,
Based on a Fixed Percentage of Children in Each Year
|
1985 |
1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
1985 - 1990 |
1995 - 2000 |
| Overall |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Married Parents |
40.5% |
38.6% |
34.8% |
38.9% |
-1.9% |
4.1% |
| Single Mother |
47.1% |
47.0% |
47.1% |
43.1% |
-0.1% |
-4.0% |
| Cohabiting Mother |
2.3% |
2.9% |
2.9% |
4.2% |
0.6% |
1.3% |
| Lower Income (Bottom 61 Percent) |
|
|
|
|
| Married Parents |
24.8% |
22.9% |
20.2% |
23.4% |
-1.9% |
3.2% |
| Single Mother |
61.8% |
60.5% |
61.1% |
56.4% |
-1.3% |
-4.7% |
| Cohabiting Mother |
3.0% |
3.9% |
3.6% |
5.8% |
0.9% |
2.2% |
| Higher Income (Top 39 Percent) |
|
|
|
|
| Married Parents |
65.8% |
63.9% |
59.1% |
64.3% |
-1.9% |
5.2% |
| Single Mother |
24.9% |
26.4% |
26.9% |
23.5% |
1.5% |
-3.4% |
| Cohabiting Mother |
1.3% |
1.4% |
1.8% |
1.8% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Bold type indicates statistical significance at the 90 percent confidence level. |
The trend away from single-mother-only households was evident among all racial
groups but was primarily confined to each group's lower-income population. The trend
toward living with married parents was evident in black children overall and in all lower-income groups except for whites. Note that among whites, the previous trend of a drop in
the proportion of low-income children living with married parents has halted. No significant
changes were observed among the higher-income children in any racial/ethnic group
except for the increase in the proportion of higher-income black children living with married
parents, but here, too, a previous adverse trend appears to stop.
Possible Explanations
Since the publication of the Center's original child living arrangements study, the
Urban Institute has released another study, "'Honey, I'm Home': Changes in Living
Arrangements in the Late 1990s," by Gregory Acs and Sandi Nelson.(6) Richard Bavier
also has analyzed CPS data and reached similar conclusions.(7) All in all, there seems to
be considerable evidence that the living arrangements of children, particularly lower-income children, have changed.
What is not clear is why this change occurred. Our earlier study carefully avoided
explanations of what caused the shifts in child living arrangements. Here we will briefly
discuss some possible explanations. One should not conclude that these changes in the
living arrangements of America's children is primarily due to welfare policy change,
although that may well have been a contributing factor.
Table 6
Living Arrangements of Hispanic Children,
Based on a Fixed Percentage of Children in Each Year
|
1985 |
1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
1985 - 1990 |
1995 - 2000 |
| Overall |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Married Parents |
68.6% |
68.4% |
64.2% |
66.2% |
-0.2% |
2.0% |
| Single Mother |
24.4% |
23.5% |
24.6% |
21.3% |
-0.9% |
-3.3% |
| Cohabiting Mother |
1.1% |
1.6% |
2.4% |
2.5% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
| Lower Income (Bottom 64 Percent) |
|
|
|
|
| Married Parents |
59.6% |
61.7% |
56.5% |
60.4% |
2.1% |
3.9% |
| Single Mother |
33.1% |
30.3% |
31.9% |
26.9% |
-2.8% |
-5.0% |
| Cohabiting Mother |
1.5% |
2.1% |
3.4% |
3.4% |
0.6% |
0.0% |
| Higher Income (Top 36 Percent) |
|
|
|
|
| Married Parents |
85.5% |
82.1% |
79.2% |
78.7% |
-4.3% |
-0.5% |
| Single Mother |
9.2% |
11.6% |
12.1% |
12.0% |
2.4% |
-0.1% |
| Cohabiting Mother |
0.3% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.9% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Bold type indicates statistical significance at the 90 percent confidence level. |
Teen Births
How much does the decline in teen birth rates account for the decline in children
living in single-mother-only families? A large decline in the teen birth rate could affect the
number of children in single-mother homes, since an average of about 75 percent of teenagers who
gave birth in the 1990s were unmarried(8) and since teens who were married at the time of
birth tend to have less-stable unions than couples who delay marriage and childbearing.(9)
The teen birth rate is defined as the number of women under age 20 for each 1,000
such women who give birth in a given year. This birth rate has dropped substantially over
the past decade, particularly among blacks.(10) From 1990 to 1994, the average teen birth
rate overall was 60.2. (In other words, for each 1,000 women under 20, some 60.2 of them
gave birth that year.) The average teen birth rate dropped in the second half of the decade
to 52.8, a decrease of 7.4 points or 12.3 percent. For black teenagers, the teen birth rate
decrease was even steeper, from 110.8 in the first half of the 1990s to 88.4 in the second.
This represented a 22.3 point
— or 20.2 percent — decline, a substantial change for such a
short period.
However, while teen birth rates decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the
late 1990s, the number of teen females increased significantly during this time. As a
result, the number of teen births overall did not decline nearly as much as suggested by the
decline in the birth rate. This is the more relevant statistic for our study, because the
number and living arrangements of children, not families, are the focus of this study.
According to National Vital Statistics Reports on births, women under age 20 gave
birth to about 2.5 million babies between 1995 and 1999. This represents a decrease of
only about 118,000 births (or a decline of 4.6 percent) from the 1990-1994 period. This
trend probably had some effect on child living arrangements, but can account for only a
small fraction of the 1.1 million fewer children living with single mothers in 2000 as
compared to 1995.(11) (Nevertheless, if the teenage birth rate had remained unchanged,
there would have been about 340,000 more births to teenage mothers, and the number of
children living with single mothers would have been higher than it was).
Changes in the number of black teen births probably had a somewhat larger effect
on child living arrangements than changes in overall teen births. The number of black teen
births decreased steadily over the entire period of the 1990s. From 1995 to 1999,
665,000 babies were born to black women under age 20. This is about 100,000 fewer
births to teenage mothers than occurred during the preceding five years, or a 13.1 percent
decline. Between 1995 and 2000, the number of black children living with a single mother
decreased by about 470,000. Relative to this number, the decrease in black teen births is
probably a more significant factor.
Welfare Reform
Given the timing of the shift away from single mothers and the fact that it is
associated primarily with lower-income families, many readers might assume its main
cause is welfare reform. In addition, it may seem that because this shift results in more
children living with two adults and fewer with a single adult, it is primarily "good." Both of
these assumptions oversimplify to some extent what has taken place.
As with any demographic or economic trend, there are a number of possible
explanations. In this case, they include growing income, which lessens stress in a family;
more people in the labor force; changes in demographic trends, particularly the increase in
children living in Hispanic homes (which can partially explain overall trends, but obviously
does not explain trends among the other subgroups); changes in social views about
marriage; fewer births to teenage mothers; the fatherhood movement; the overall decline in
births; and changes in the age distribution of births.
Policy changes also may have played a role. These include the establishment of
the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program and other changes in the
safety net, some of which (such as food stamp cuts) reduced assistance to poor families,
while others (such as expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit and expanded health
insurance coverage for low-income children) increased assistance, particularly for working
families.
Another policy change, the strengthening of the child support enforcement system,
also may have affected people's choices about family structure. Research has shown that
strong child support enforcement reduces divorce and out-of-wedlock child bearing.(12) TANF programs generally require mothers to comply with the child support system to receive assistance,
which may have had some effects on child living arrangements. In addition, the substantial
recent increase in paternity establishment rates, coupled with greater child support enforcement
efforts, has increased the probability that a low-income, unmarried father is involved to
some extent with the child support system; this may be affecting male behavior as well.
However, it is difficult to measure and estimate how these policy changes —
individually or collectively — have affected family structure decisions. It is likely that
"welfare" changes can only explain a relatively modest proportion of the changes in living
arrangements of children since 1995.
Table 7
Single Mother Family Living Arrangements of Children:
By Mothers' Earnings
|
1995 |
2000 |
Point
Change |
|
Lower-Earning Single Mothers
|
|
|
| Single Mother Alone |
62.9% |
59.4% |
-3.5% |
| W/ Relatives |
22.8% |
23.0% |
0.2% |
| W/ Male |
9.5% |
12.8% |
3.3% |
| Other |
4.8% |
4.8% |
0.0% |
|
Middle-Earning Single Mothers
|
|
|
| Single Mother Alone |
61.5% |
64.1% |
2.6% |
| W/ Relatives |
20.5% |
17.3% |
-3.1% |
| W/ Male |
12.8% |
14.9% |
2.2% |
| Other |
5.2% |
3.6% |
-1.6% |
| Percentage Point Differences in Changes between Lower and
Middle Earning Single Mothers |
| Single Mother Alone |
-6.1% |
|
|
| W/ Relatives |
3.4% |
|
|
| W/ Male |
1.1% |
|
|
| Other |
1.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Bold type indicates statistical significance at the 90 percent confidence level. |
Strong Economy
Another potential factor explaining the trend away from single mother families is the
strong economy between 1995 and 2000. Historically, when parents have jobs and real
wages are increasing, the family is under less stress, and family breakups or separations
are less frequent. Census data indicate that the rate of increase in the percentage of
children living with just one parent was approximately four times greater during periods of
increasing poverty relative to periods of decreasing poverty. Specifically, between 1968
and 2000, the increase in the percentage of children living with a single parent averaged
0.67 percentage points per year during years of increasing poverty but only 0.16
percentage points per year during years when poverty was falling.(13) The corollary is that
the percentage of children living with married parents declines faster during periods of
rising poverty relative to years when poverty is falling. Census data confirm this as well.
More recent Census data illustrate that once again, the economy influences child living
arrangements. As the country entered into a recession in early 2001, the number and
percentage of children living with single mothers increased while the number and
percentage living with two parents declined. This demonstrates that the performance of
the economy is correlated with changes in the living arrangements of children.
While this analysis can not measure precisely the impact of a strong economy upon
child living arrangements, it should be noted that the expansion of the 1990s differed
substantially from the expansion of the 1980s. Unemployment in late 1999 reached 3.9
percent, substantially lower than the 5.0 percent unemployment rate reached in March
1989. Also, labor force participation rates were much higher in the late 1990s than in the
late 1980s. Finally, real wage growth for low wage earners was substantially greater in the
late 1990s than the late 1980s. Thus, the economy of the 1990s may have played a much
larger role in the declining percentage of children living with single mothers than in average
years.
Effect on Child Well-being
Proceeding one step further and assessing the impact of changing living
arrangements upon child outcomes is extremely difficult. While the declining proportion of
children living in single-mother-only families may have a positive impact upon many
children, the data studied here do not directly measure child well-being or the quality or
stability of family arrangements. Two other trends, however, should give us pause. Data
from the National Survey of America's Families suggest that between 1997 and 1999,
there was a small but statistically significant increase in the percentage of children living
with neither of their biological parents.(14) While those children may be better off living with
kin or within foster care homes, an increase in the size of that population cannot be labeled
"good."
There also is evidence that between 1995 and 2000, children in single-mother
families(15) with the lowest earnings became less likely to live only with a single mother. The
table above examines, for the 1995 - 2000 period, the change in living arrangements of
children who live with single mothers in two income groups: "lower-earning" (which is
defined as the bottom 40 percent of children by income) and "middle-earning" (defined as
the next 30 percent of children by income). Children in married parent families are
excluded from this analysis. (Note: While the percentage of children in each group was
held constant between 1995 and 2000, the earnings cutoff for the mothers in the lower-earning group increased significantly from $1,690 in 1995 to $8,000 in 2000 due to an
overall rise in earnings and a greater proportion of mothers with earnings.)
In the lower-earning group, the proportion of children living with a single mother
alone declined between 1995 and 2000, while the proportion living with a single mother
and a cohabiting male increased. In the middle-earning group, the proportion of children
living with a single mother alone did not change significantly during this period, while the
proportion of children living with a single mother and other relatives declined.
In other words, between 1995 and 2000, the decline in the proportion of children
living with a single mother alone was concentrated in the lower-earning group, while the
decline in the percentage of children living with a single mother and other relatives was
concentrated in the middle-earning group. These data when combined with other studies
suggest that those mothers experiencing the most difficulty in adjusting to changes in the
welfare system — those with the lowest incomes — may have coped with those income
losses by living with unrelated men to a greater degree.
Census data for 1997 through 1999 suggest that about 750,000 of the lowest
earning single mother families had lower disposable income (earnings plus cash
assistance payments plus any food stamp or housing benefits plus the earned income tax
credit less federal income and payroll taxes) than in 1995.(16) Unpublished 2001 Census
data also show that the poorest 10 percent of single mother families on average had 28
percent less disposable income than in 1995, after adjusting for inflation. These families
show little earnings gains and large losses of government benefits. That data in this study
indicate that to cope with those income losses, a small percentage of these mothers no
longer live with just their children while more live with unrelated men. Information from the
National Survey of American families suggests that not all of the males who live with these
mothers are the natural fathers of these children. Given child welfare studies, it is unclear
whether this change is better for the children. The data also suggest that those mothers
with greater earnings were somewhat less likely to live in extended families.
The data in this study thus suggest that overall trends in child living arrangements,
while apparently positive, include some subtrends that may or may not be positive for
children. This underscores the need to exercise caution in interpreting these trends.
End Notes:
1.
The author wishes to thank Allen Dupree, Jessica Goldberg, and Kathleen Romig for their
assistance in preparing this paper.
2.
Allen Dupree and Wendell Primus,
Declining Share of Children Lived with Single Mothers in the Late 1990s,
<https://www.cbpp.org/6-15-01wel.htm> (Washington, DC: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, June 2001).
3.
In this analysis, we use the term "cohabiting mother" to refer to a living situation in which an
unmarried mother lives with a single adult male who is not related to her and with no other adults. This
definition is consistent with the Census Bureau's concept of the "Persons of the Opposite Sex Sharing
Living Quarters," used in its analysis of cohabitation trends over time.
4.
The term "married parents" does not mean married biological parents. Married parents also includes
adoptive and step-parents. "Cohabiting mother" and "single mother" are mutually exclusive categories.
The latter indicates single mothers living alone with their children or residing with relatives. The
percentages in most of the tables do not total to 100 percent because they exclude children living with
fathers and children not living with either of their biological parents.
5.
In this analysis, cohabiting mother is defined as a mother living with her children and one or more
unrelated adults, usually the mother's boyfriend. Also, the 700,000 foster children in this country are
included in the breakouts by race, but not included in any of the income subdivisions in this analysis.
6.
Gregory Acs and Sandi Nelson, "Honey, I'm Home": Changes in Living Arrangements in the
Late 1990s (Washington, DC: Urban Institute, 2001).
7.
Richard Bavier, "Recent Increases in the Share of Young Children Living with Married Mothers,"
Unpublished manuscript. March 2001.
8.
Stephanie J. Ventura, Sally C. Curtin, and T. J. Matthews, "Variations in Teenage Birth Rates,
1991 - 98: National and State Trends," National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 48, No. 6 (Hyattsville,
MD: Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National
Center for Health Statistics, April 2000); Joyce A. Martin, Brady E. Hamilton, and Stephanie J.
Ventura, "Births: Preliminary Data for 2000," National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 49, No. 5
(Hyattsville, MD: Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, July 2001).
9.
Bramlett MD, Mosher WD. "First marriage dissolution, divorce, and remarriage: United States,"
Advance Data from Vital and Health Statistics; No. 323. Hyattsville, Maryland: National Center for
Health Statistics. 2001.
10.
Martin, Hamilton, and Ventura, "Births: Preliminary Data for 2000."
11.
Ibid.; "Live Births by Age of Mother and Race: United States, 1933 - 98." [1985 - 98] Even
though the overwhelming majority of teenage parents are single, not all are single. Furthermore, some
of them marry after several years, either to the father of the child or to someone else. Thus, the decline
of 118,000 births to teenage mothers does not translate into an equivalent decline in the number of
children living in single mother families.
12.
Nixon, Lucia A. 1997. "The Effects of Child Support Enforcement on Marital Dissolution,"
Journal of Human Resources, 32; Case, Anne. 1998. "The Effects of Stronger Child Support
Enforcement on Non-Marital Fertility." In Irwin Garfinkel, Sara McLanahan, Daniel Meyer, and Judith
A. Seltzer, (eds.), "Fathers Under Fire: The Revolution in Child Support Enforcement." New York:
Russell Sage Foundation; Plotnic, Robert, Irwin Garfinkel, Daniel Gaylin, Sara McLanahan, and Inhoe
Ku, 1998. "Better Child Support Enforcement: Can It Reduce Teenage Premarital Childbearing?".
Paper presented at Population Association of American 1998 Annual Meeting; Blau, Francine,
Lawrence Kahn, and Jane Waldfogel, 1999. "Does Welfare Influence Young Women's Marriage,
Single Parenthood, and Female Headship Decisions?". Working paper, Columbia University.
13.
Removing the 1993 to 2000 expansion increases the 0.16 figure only slightly.
14.
Acs and Nelson, Ibid. Table 2.
15.
In this section of the paper only, "single-mother families" means all children residing in with a single
mother including mothers who are cohabiting.
16.
Ron Haskins and Wendell Primus. "Welfare Reform and Poverty," Welfare Reform and Beyond,
Policy Brief No. 4. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution. July 2001.
Wendell Primus. Comments on "Effects of Welfare Reform on Family Income and Poverty" in
Rebecca Blank and Ron Haskins, (eds.), The New World of Welfare Reform. Washington, DC:
Brookings Institution Press, 2001.
Declining
Share of Children Lived with Single Mothers in the Late 1990s